Macro Preview - CPI Inflation Likely To Hit 7.2% In June, WPI To Come Off High: ICICI Securities

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ICICI Securities Report

We expect a sharp uptick in headline retail inflation in June 2021 due to higher food and fuel inflation.

Our estimate of consumer price index for June 2021 is 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May 2021 and 6.2% in Jun 2020.

We expect consumer food price index and food and beverage inflation to print 7.6% and 7.4% respectively in June 2021, on an already high base of 8.7% and 7.9% in June 2020.

We expect wholesale price index inflation to print 11.2% in June 2021, mainly due to base. Wholesale inflation in June 2020 was down 1.8%.

While almost all components within the WPI basket are expected to post sharp uptick in inflation (partly due to low base), higher prices of manufactured products are likely to drive the increase in inflation.

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