One South Africa Movement chief activist Mmusi Maimane writes what he believes former president Jacob Zuma really wants, and what the solution is for South Africa moving forward.
"At what stage did you recognise that South Africa had a Jacob Zuma problem?" a journalist asked me this week off the record during an interview.
My answer was this: the ANC's 53rd National Conference held almost 10 years ago, December 2012, in Manguang, Free State. I went on to explain.
Many point to the preceding 2007 Polokwane Conference as the "watershed" moment in Jacob Zuma's rise to power as he ousted Thabo Mbeki, and his allies won the full leadership "slate".
However, it would be remiss to not consider the Manguang Conference five years later - his great "capture" moment, a sign that he had full and exhaustive power over party and state and intended to use it any which way he liked.
At Manguang, Jacob Zuma was at the height of his popularity. He was re-elected ANC president with 75.04% of the vote, with his deputy Cyril Ramaphosa also winning his position in a landslide against Mathews Phosa.
The fact that figures such as Ramaphosa would tie themselves to Zuma and play second fiddle as his deputy is indicative of the thinking within the ANC at the time: Zuma is here, he's not going anyway. Let's get used to it and get on board.
But for me, it wasn't only the magnitude of Zuma's win and his control over the party and government, it was the control over internal debate, dialogue and opinion that rendered problematic outcomes for democracy.
I recall I was national spokesperson for the DA at the time of the Manguang Conference, doing many public interviews on Zuma and developments within the ANC. There was a particular song sung at the conference by ANC delegates aimed towards me.
"Mfo Ka Maimane, wenzeni UZuma?" - What has Zuma done, delegates asked?
Zuma's ultimate desire is power
Almost a decade later and this question answers itself. However, at that time this song's sentiment was instructive as to the change in attitudes towards Jacob Zuma. In a short few years, he'd moved from someone fresh and new, to someone untouchable and almost eternal.
The question before us today is not "what has Zuma done?" Rather, the question begs, "what does Zuma really want?"
Throughout his presidency and the years that have followed, he has been unclear. He wanted his day in court, and when it comes, he finds a way to delay. He did not fear going to jail, but when that day comes, he finds a way to delay. He wanted to eradicate poverty and bring about radical economic transformation, but when it comes to it, he instead pursued corruption, state capture and increased poverty and inequality.
Without attempting a shallow form of psychoanalysis, here is what I think Jacob Zuma really wants. Jacob Zuma wants power, pure and simple. He is acutely aware that this meaning control of the ANC. His leadership style is modelled on Vladimir Putin who has shown what "ruler for life" looks like, moving from Prime Minister to President and then extended his reign. Zuma knows this cannot be achieved through our Constitution. Therefore, he needs to have absolute control of the ANC - like he did following Mangaung in 2012.
Zuma knows the playbook. He has used it before. Once you gain control of the ANC, you can use majoritarianism to control every lever of power. His great comeback is in play. He has supporters on the ground and in ANC branches. He doesn't take orders for the ANC's top 6. He attends NEC meetings and has a powerful faction within it. And he is using his legal battles to launch an assault on the one arm of government that refused to bow to his sinister acts: the Judiciary. Zuma has for the most part sent a message that the Judiciary is subject to him, demonstrated by the doublespeak of respecting the law in words but broadly not adhering to it.
The only solution for South Africa
At present, two of the three arms of government are under direct ANC control - the Executive and Parliament. If the judiciary were to fall to factionist politics, I fear this country would fall into a crisis of democracy with conditions ripe for authoritarians and fascists. It is not a far cry to say that Jacob Zuma wants the judiciary to be captured.
I remain convinced that SA's only option beyond ANC factionalism and rising racial ethno-nationalism is to form a new alliance, a liberal democratic formation armed with an effective and credibly economic vision. The moral case that the looters create is that we have allowed our economy to thrive for a few, we need a reset and ensure that we build inclusion. While they are not wrong, we can rebuild the state to make it capable and inclusive - but without the looters and the demagogues.
The false dichotomy of a good ANC and a bad ANC is what is keeping our country in political and economic gridlock. We have no choice but to think beyond the ANC. For the ANC is finished as a leader in society, and most critically as a governing body.
- Mmusi Maimane is Chief Activist of the One South Africa Movement
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