Maharashtra task force expects further drop in Covid cases in 2 weeks

PUNE: The state task force and the health department expect the Covid infections to decline in Maharashtra in the next two weeks if no new variant of concern emerges and people strictly adhere to protocols related to the pandemic amid stepped-up vaccination in districts with more active cases.
“The thick tail of the second wave of the pandemic should reduce in Maharashtra if strict covid protocols are followed and districts with high numbers of active cases ensure necessary steps to curtail the spread provided no new variant of concern emerges,” state task force member Dr Shashank Joshi on Monday told TOI.

He said both Maharashtra and Kerala were still reporting 9,000-10,000 infections on a daily basis and the country was recording over 40,000 cases. “This needs to go down further,” Dr Joshi said.
State surveillance expert Dr Pradeep Awate said active cases in Maharashtra should decline in the next two weeks, as has been the trend across the country. “This might touch the baseline by the end of July with the overall cases declining, barring in the 10 districts where the infections were still high,” he said.
“There are not many Delta-plus variant cases in the state. But a close watch is being kept,” Dr Awate said. On the of a third wave of the pandemic, he said, “It’s too early to say anything about the third wave, especially its timing and magnitude. But we should not let our guard down,” he said.
Maharashtra currently has over 1.2 lakh active cases and nearly 34% are in hospitals. A health official said the condition of the hospitalized patients was 13%, while the overall recovery rate in the state was nearly 96%.
The state’s weekly positivity rate till July 3 was 4.5%. Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli, Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Buldhana, Pune (rural), Palghar and Raigad recorded test positivity rates higher than 4.5%, a report prepared by the state public health department revealed. Kolhapur till July 3 topped the state with a 10% positivity rate, followed by Satara (9.1%). The lowest positivity in the state was registered in Gondia (0.29%), followed by Nanded (0.36%) and Jalgaon (0.4%).
Dr Joshi said the authorities have told officials of the nine districts with weekly positivity rates higher than 4.5% to boost their testing levels, contact tracing and pace of vaccine coverage and also ensure proper containment measures.
Health experts said the state had reached the plateau in terms of Covid cases during the past two-three weeks when the daily infections oscillated between 8,000 and 10,000 with a test positivity rate at around 5%.
“The target should be to go below 5%. Though the daily cases have been declining in some districts during the past two weeks, all districts in the state should be in the same bracket, as observed during the first wave of the pandemic,” public health expert Dr R Jotkar said.
“The overall state average might be a positive sign, but one needs to keep a close watch on districts such as Kolhapur and Satara with high positivity rate. A close surveillance on the (virus) mutants is a must, while vaccination and strict adherence to the preventive measures are the only way ahead. Any violation of the Covid protocols should be dealt with strict punishment with experts warning of a possible third wave of the pandemic, as witnessed in other countries,” he said.
State health director Dr Archana Patil has said the districts that have high positivity rate should improve testing, contact tracing, identify hotspots and ensure that vaccination was intensified and that there was no major gathering.