Covid third wave likely to be less dangerous: Health dept

Thiruvananthapuram: Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has expressed concern over the increase in the caseload in five northern districts. Meanwhile, the health department has made it clear that “there will be a third wave, with size probably less than that of a second wave”.
However, the health department has also warned that “there could be a wave piggyback on the existing second wave in the five northern districts”. The expected average daily number of cases in the state this week is also over 10,000, said the health department report presented before the review meeting on Monday.
The chief minister directed the district collectors of Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod to ensure that the testing numbers are increased for the next one week.
No decline in cases
As per the report presented at the meeting, 84,790 cases were reported in the week between June 28 and July 4.This is more than the cases reported between June 21 and 27, which was 79,500. The caseload was 95,157 in the week between June 7 and 13.
The percentage of change in the active cases was more in Kozhikode (11.93%), Kasaragod (11.81%), Malappuram (10.64%), Wayanad (9.41%) and Kannur (9.12%). In these five districts, cases increased in three days from July 2 to 4 when compared to the cases reported from June 29 to July1. In Kannur and Kasaragod, the TPR increased to 11.77% and 14.96% from 10.44% and 13.24%, respectively.
Third wave prediction
There will be a third wave, with size probably less than that of the second wave. Third wave may not be a challenge if 40% effective herd immunity could be achieved before the wave. A 30% herd immunity may also protect from challenging the third wave, unless the transmissibility of the virus is not more than 20% additional to the existing strain (maybe delta), said the report.
The health department pointed out that the best way to achieve this is vaccination. If no third wave occurs over the existing second wave (piggybacking phenomenon), there could be a third wave in September-October as a post-Onam surge.
The CM said that there are reports of people with comorbidities and children who have tested positive are not getting admitted in hospitals.There should be proper campaigns to get them admitted in Covid hospitals since they will require regular medical attention, he said.
He urged the district administration and health authorities to ensure that the data of the people coming in contact with the Covid-positive people are strictly monitored.The data of the primary and secondary contacts should be strictly uploaded on the government portal. Regular follow-ups of these contacts should be done, he said.