How does one read the recent move by Mayawati, chief of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), in declaring that the party will “go solo” in the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand Assembly elections? More importantly, how does one read this politically? In a series of Tweets recently, Ms. Mayawati had said, “The BSP wishes to clarify that, except Punjab, the BSP will not contest the assembly election in alliance with any party in U.P. and Uttarakhand, where the elections to the assembly are to be held at the beginning of next year. The BSP will fight the assembly elections in both the states on its own strength.”
Eye on social groups
There may be multiple ways to understand her decision about the participation of her party in the important Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh. If one analyses the electoral history of the BSP, one may find that most of the time, the BSP has preferred not to form an electoral alliance with political parties but has been more inclined to form alliances with various social groups. The BSP believes that it represents a larger Dalit-Bahujan social base and has what it takes to offer other social communities better political space when they join the BSP. The BSP has scripted most of its political victories through its strategies to associate various social groups around its Dalit social base, by providing them various forms of representation. It must be noted that it was when they began losing their capacity to form an alliance with various non-Dalit communities directly that they felt compelled to go in for alliances with political parties during the Lok Sabha/general election, in 2019.
Alliance with SP and after
In its early years, the BSP formed a successful electoral alliance with the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) during the 1993 Assembly election but the leadership in both parties realised later that their parties represent the interests of social groups that are contesting against each other at the grassroots due to various socio-political reasons. So, this electorally successful alliance could not work out when it came to governance due to inherent social contradictions with the aggressive rise of Other Backward Classes and Dalit communities that had political aspirations.
Therefore, Ms. Mayawati’s decision cited above — about not forming an electoral alliance with any political party — needs to be re-read in the context of changed political time and social context. The fact is that Ms. Mayawati is struggling to keep her voter base intact. Her Dalit base faces problems on account of various possibilities of fragmentation. A Hindutva aspiration is growing fast among a section of marginal communities, even as economically well-to-do and a leading section of marginal communities are looking for comparatively better space in various political parties with the aim of acquiring political power. A section of Dalit communities is also disillusioned with Ms. Mayawati despite her record of being a four-time Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. They are critical of her and ready to move towards exploring other political options in their quest for empowerment. So, this would mean an electoral alliance with any political party that brings them in close contact with the cadres and the leaders of alliance partners that may help prepare the conditions needed for their upward mobility.
Therefore, it is to preserve her voter base that Ms. Mayawati feels a need to go it alone in the election and inculcate hope among her voter base for their better political future. It would appear that Ms. Mayawati may be projecting herself as strong and aggressive just to make her voter base be confident and cohesive. Ms. Mayawati’s recent political actions reflect that her primary aim/priority in this election is to retain her voter base vote rather than form the government. She has also declared her position well in advance not to form an alliance with any political party to reduce any confusion among her followers following rumours. In a related Tweet, she had said, “A news channel is broadcasting news since yesterday that in the upcoming UP Assembly elections, BSP will contest along with (Asaduddin) Owaisi’s party AIMIM. This news is completely wrong, misleading and devoid of any fact. There is not even an iota of truth in this. The BSP vociferously denies this.”
Versus the BJP
Ms. Mayawati’s stand may be guided by her compulsion and the need to save her electoral base but it is going to be beneficial for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the State in some sense. It is easy to understand that a fragmented and dispersed Opposition may not be able to present itself as a strong counter to the BJP. Voters against the BJP may remain fragmented even as the BJP is trying hard to expand its politics among various castes and social communities in the State. It can be seen trying to reach out and form alliances with various social communities and bringing them under its fold using three strategies: by providing them political space; nurturing the identities of various backward and marginal communities by providing them a sense of dignity, and distributing democratic and state-sponsored resources to the various Bahujan communities. Ms. Mayawati’s main challenge now is to prevent Hindutva politics from making inroads and saving her marginal and Bahujan base. It is interesting to observe that the BSP is constantly losing its capacity to attract other castes to join its Dalit-Bahujan base vote. Given this situation, it would be difficult for Ms. Mayawati to win a number of seats that may help her take over the reins of State power.
In my understanding, Ms. Mayawati’s decision to ‘ekala chalo’, or go alone in the coming election is probably influenced by the party’s earlier experience of electoral coalitions. In fact, an electoral coalition may not be successful unless it enables chemistry between social groups at the grass-root level. The conflict and contradiction between the social bases of allied partners may weaken the possibility of an electoral victory as seen during the last parliamentary election 2019, where the SP and the BSP contested together in Uttar Pradesh, only to perform so badly. Second, it is also the result of her main worry to keep her voter base intact. In fact, the Mayawati-led BSP is going to contest one of the toughest, if not the toughest, election in its political history. Let us see how she takes it further and performs in the forthcoming U.P. Assembly election, in 2022.
Badri Narayan is Director, G.B. Pant Social Science Institute (a Constituent Institute of the Central University of Allahabad), Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh