Covid: What impact has the furlough scheme had?
It's been a little over 15 months since the government pledged to subsidise the wages of employees hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
Although much has changed since 20 March 2020, Chancellor Rishi Sunak's "unprecedented" furlough scheme has remained in operation.
However, it has been extended four times as the full impact of Covid on the UK economy became clear.
Drawn up after lengthy talks with business groups and union leaders, the scheme initially committed the government to paying 80% of the salaries of staff who were kept on by their employer while unable to work, covering wages of up to £2,500 a month.
The furlough scheme is now due to end on 30 September, but there will be some changes as it winds down.
From July, employers will have to contribute to furlough pay for hours not worked, starting with a 10% contribution in July and rising to 20% in August and September.
That will bring the government's contribution down to 70%, then 60%.
During the lifetime of the scheme to date, about 11.5 million jobs have been supported at one time or another, with a steep take-up in the first few months.
But that doesn't mean the government was ever paying that many people's wages at any given time.
According to data from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC), the number of jobs furloughed peaked at 8.9 million on 8 May last year. It then fell steadily until late last year, when it picked up again, without ever hitting the heights of the first lockdown.
Since then, it has shrunk to about 3.4 million - but that still represents 12% of the UK's workforce. At the same time, those who remained in work saw their hours decline sharply, although there has been a significant recovery since then.
Big bill
In his announcement in March 2020, the chancellor extended sympathy to those fearful of losing their livelihoods.
"To all those at home right now, anxious about the days ahead, I say this: you will not face this alone," he said.
Although he has since become one of the country's best-known politicians and currently enjoys one of the highest net approval ratings in opinion polls, Mr Sunak was fairly new in his post at the time.
A week and a half earlier, in his first Budget, he had announced a £30bn package to boost the economy and get the country through the virus outbreak.
Initially, that seemed like a lot. But the chancellor's Job Retention Scheme, to give it its official name. along with other support measures, would end up incurring a far bigger bill.
When the scheme was originally launched, the government still had only a vague notion of how big it was likely to become.
But so far, coronavirus has cost the government more than £370bn, according to the National Audit Office, with £64bn spent on the furlough scheme alone.
As a result, government borrowing has increased substantially to cover the cost of that economic support.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Mr Sunak have both said recently that they do not want to extend furlough again.
Since March 2020, more women than men have been furloughed.
Younger people, who are more likely to work in the sectors of the economy worst hit by the coronavirus lockdown measures, have also accounted for a large proportion of those on furlough.
Obviously some sectors of the economy made more use of the furlough scheme than others.
With pubs and restaurants particularly badly affected by coronavirus curbs, the hospitality industry saw a high number of workers furloughed.
And non-essential shops were closed at the height of the lockdown, so retailers made big claims on the government's resources. However, some large employers in that sector, notably supermarkets - who remained open during lockdowns, have since repaid the cash.
People working in the arts, entertainment and other leisure activities were also more likely to find themselves on furlough than those in other walks of life.
But as analysts say, the scheme was designed to keep people connected to jobs that would return after the pandemic peak passed. And many jobs in those areas have either not returned or are still threatened by continued coronavirus curbs.
Late last year, when it looked as though the furlough scheme was coming to an end, there was a notable increase in the number of workers made redundant. However, in recent months, the number of redundancies has fallen again as the economy reopens.
Fraud fears
Influential think tank the Resolution Foundation has described the furlough scheme as "a very successful and well-implemented policy intervention".
"It has supported household incomes in the face of an unprecedented shock and maintained the crucial attachment between employees and their employer," the foundation added.
But as the scheme draws to a close, it's still an open question how history will judge it.
It has drawn fire from the Commons Public Accounts Committee, which wants all firms benefiting from the scheme to be named publicly in the interests of transparency.
The committee has also spoken dismissively of "hastily drawn up economic support schemes" that provided "unacceptable room for fraud against taxpayers".
HMRC, which administered the furlough scheme, has suggested that up to 10% of the money delivered by the scheme to mid-August 2020 - £3.5bn - may have been paid out in fraud or error.
Apart from that, there is the issue of whether it genuinely safeguarded viable jobs or merely delayed the inevitable disappearance of unviable ones.
The chancellor has said that not every job can be saved and has urged those affected to retrain - saying that "everyone is having to find ways to adapt and adjust to the new reality".
The number of vacancies fell sharply during the early stages of the pandemic, but job offers are now considerably up on last year.
In fact, many employers are now having trouble finding suitable staff, leading some experts to talk of the UK's missing workers.
Ultimately, the verdict on the furlough scheme may have to await the passing of the pandemic - and with cases on the increase again, that's unlikely to happen any time soon.
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