Third wave may hit Ludhiana district in September-end: CMCH study

LUDHIANA: A calculation by the Christian Medical College and Hospital (CMCH) indicates that there are chances of arrival of the third wave of Covid by the last week of September. However, the finding suggests that it may get delayed in Ludhiana if 70% of eligible persons get immunised and people follow Covid-appropriate behaviour.
CMCH’s preventive and social medicine department projected the figures on the basis of mathematical calculations from the available data in recent times.
A doctor involved in the work, who didn’t want to reveal his identity, said, “The calculations suggest that Ludhiana district may witness the third surge by the last week of September or the first week of October. It may arrive even before the predicted time, depending on the behaviour of the people. If the health department is able to vaccinate 70% of eligible persons, then the wave may get delayed by four to six months. Apart from regular vaccination, we have suggested to the authorities to inoculate college students, especially those with co-morbidities, as institutes might be opened because of examinations. We have also advised the authorities to get teachers and non-teaching staff vaccinated.”
CMCH officials said if the authorities strictly enforce wearing of masks and maintaining social distancing, the peak may get delayed. The baseline for Ludhiana district is 130, and once the daily cases cross this number, it indicates that “we are moving towards the wave”.
“As the number of vaccinated persons, especially those who have received the first dose, has already crossed 1 million and those infected have developed antibodies, the third wave may not be as severe as the second one,” said the doctor, adding that vaccination reduces the severity of the disease.
Dr Clarence Samuel, head of the department of preventive and social medicine department, said to delay the third wave, people must get jabbed and follow Covid-appropriate behaviour, like wearing a mask, washing hands regularly, maintaining social distancing and practising cough etiquettes.
HIGHEST NUMBER OF CASES
Last year, the highest number of cases reported in a day in Ludhiana district was on September 16, when 562 were infected
During the second wave, the highest number of persons (1,729) from the district had tested positive for the disease on May 9
HIGHEST ACTIVE CASES
The number of active cases during the first wave was the highest on August 22 last year at 3,867 and during the second wave on May 16 at 13,217.