The Cabinet is expected to postpone the further reopening of the country from July 5 to July 26 at the latest, pending the advice of Nphet, the scientific body advising the G overnment on Covid-19.
owever, differences are emerging between Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar on the issue, the Sunday Independent has learned.
Mr Varadkar has significant concerns about the tourism and hospitality sectors if the scheduled reopening tomorrow week is postponed without absolute certainty about when indoor dining will be allowed and other restrictions lifted.
But Mr Martin is worried there could be up to 2,000 Delta variant cases a day here by the end of July if reopening goes ahead on July 5 — potentially leading to a significant tightening of restrictions in August.
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“December weighs heavily on the Cabinet’s collective mind — heavily,” a Government source said, referring to the reopening at Christmas which led to the loss of more than 1,000 lives from Covid in January.
“We are awaiting the data from Nphet next week,” one source said yesterday. “Decisions will be made after that, terribly difficult decisions, to be honest.”
The schedule to reopen bars and restaurants for indoor hospitality on July 5 is in major doubt with the rise of the Delta variant of the virus, which accounts for a rapidly growing number of cases here.
The Delta variant is expected to account for around 80pc of all cases by the end of July. The variant, which emerged in India, is significantly more transmissible. A single dose of AstraZeneca is only 33pc effective against it.
Mr Martin last week seemed to be preparing the public for the possibility of a short postponement of two or three weeks, pending the advice of Nphet this week.
However, it is understood Mr Varadkar is not persuaded by the argument to postpone.
“Britain is at 80pc single dose and 60pc double dose vaccination. Cases and hospitalisations are rising there,” a source close to the Tánaiste said.
"But they are less risk averse than us — and no sign of them closing indoor dining. Similarly, in Northern Ireland. And throughout Europe.”
Mr Varadkar fears yet another ruinous lost summer for business if the Government does not proceed with hospitality reopening plans on July 5.
“Leo doesn’t like this open-ended two- to three-week delay scenario and, sure, then we’ll see…” a Cabinet source said.
“The Tánaiste fears the summer could be lost.”
Mr Varadkar is understood to want Nphet to outline the criteria by which the country can further reopen should it propose deferring the July 5 plan.
However Mr Martin is understood to be persuaded by the argument that all the country’s over-60s will be fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca by July 19.
And with a further week to allow vaccines to take effect, the Fianna Fáil leader’s belief is that it would be far safer for restaurants and bars to reopen for indoor dining on July 26 at the latest or possibly on July 19.
Meanwhile, most people in their 50s are already fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine.
Niac, the National Immunisation Advisory Committee, is reconsidering whether to roll out the AstraZeneca vaccine to under 50s.
In that scenario a significantly larger proportion of the public will be either fully vaccinated or have received one dose by the end of July, making reopening safer.
Mr Martin believes should the July 5 reopening not be postponed there could be between 1,500 and 2,000 Delta Covid cases diagnosed in Ireland every day by the end of July, potentially leading to a row-back on restrictions already lifted.
“At the end, the Government will obviously be heavily influenced by what Nphet reports, but it’s back to last October again, we need Nphet to tell us when we can reopen if we have to postpone the reopening from July 5,” a source in the said.
“We are back to the same old circular argument that led Leo to attack Nphet last October: What is the metric for reopening — the percentage of people vaccinated; the number of people in ICU or hospital?”