Neighbourhood Watch: Advance of the Taliban & other developments

Taliban fighters reached the gate of Mazar-e-Sharif, the largest city in North Afghanistan this week (see photograph shared on social media). While Kabul claimed government forces had pushed them away, the demeanour of the fighters in this photograph shows how relaxed and confident they are.

Seventy civilians, most of them girl students, were killed last month in a bomb blast outside a school close to Kabul and even the US embassy in Kabul is reportedly not safe. As US troops seem poised to pull out of Afghanistan by mid-July, and not September as planned, the situation seems to be dangerously spinning out of control as local militias have reportedly joined the fighting against the Taliban.

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Imran Khan says no to US base in Pakistan

In an opinion piece in the Washington Post this week, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan explains why Pakistan is no longer in favour of allowing US to set up a base in Pakistan.

“If the US, with the most powerful military machine in history, couldn’t win the war from inside Afghanistan after 20 years, how would America do it from bases in our country? …We support an agreement that preserves the development gains made in Afghanistan in the past two decades. And we want economic development, and increased trade and connectivity in Central Asia, to lift our economy. We will all go down the drain if there is further civil war…," he wrote.

“In the past, Pakistan made a mistake by choosing between warring Afghan parties, but we have learned from that experience. We have no favorites and will work with any government that enjoys the confidence of the Afghan people. History proves that Afghanistan can never be controlled from the outside….,” he went on to add.

“Our country has suffered so much from the wars in Afghanistan. More than 70,000 Pakistanis have been killed. While the United States provided $20 billion in aid, losses to the Pakistani economy have exceeded $150 billion. Tourism and investment dried up. After joining the U.S. effort, Pakistan was targeted as a collaborator, leading to terrorism against our country from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other groups. U.S. drone attacks, which I warned against, didn’t win the war, but they did create hatred for Americans, swelling the ranks of terrorist groups against both our countries…,” he wrote even as observers see this as posturing for a better bargaining position. Other experts, however, see a China-Russia-Pakistan axis emerging to deal with Afghanistan.

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Pakistan reminds India of the past

In a report published in Dawn, it has been alleged that the US had decided on direct action against the Taliban a month before the twin towers were attacked on 9/11 in New York by the Al Quaeda. The report says that India knew about the plan and that it was actively helping the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan at the time.

The report quotes extensively from Indian newspapers to say that Indian Ambassador Bharath Raj Muthu Kumar, who served in Dushanbe from 1996-2000, coordinated military and medical assistance to Ahmad Shah Massoud and his forces.

The report claims India established contact with Massoud just a week after the Taliban took over Kabul in September 1996. “Amrullah Saleh, currently first vice president of Afghanistan, who was then posted in Tajikistan’s capital Dushanbe on behalf of the deposed Kabul administration, rang up the Indian ambassador and sought a meeting for “commander”. He had used the word commander for Massoud, who had arrived in Dushanbe early morning after dodging the Taliban…”

“Kumar, after taking permission from his higher-ups in New Delhi walked to Massoud’s home in Dushanbe, where he was hosted with tea and dry fruit. Political leadership in New Delhi had advised the envoy to “listen carefully, report back faithfully, and play it by ear.” Sipping a cup of tea, Massoud asked for India’s help to unseat the Taliban and defeat al-Qaeda.

“Short of sending heavy equipment, India provided extensive assistance to the anti-Taliban alliance, which included uniforms, ordnance, mortars, small armaments, refurbished Kalashnikovs seized in Kashmir, combat and winter clothes, packaged food and medicines via Tajikistan. The funds, however, were routed through Massoud’s brother, Wali Massoud, who was stationed in London…”

“India also helped to maintain 10 helicopters owned by Northern Alliance with spares and service and also gifted two Mi-8 helicopters. It also spent $7.5 million to set up a medical facility at Farkhor, 130 kilometers (81 miles) southeast of the capital Dushanbe, where Massoud breathed his last when he was brought after an assassination attempt on him on Sept. 9, 2001, at Khoja Bahauddin, in the Takhar Province of Afghanistan.”

“Five months before he died, Massoud was in New Delhi on a four-day visit. India’s former Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh in his book, titled A Call to Honour, wrote: “This had to be a closely guarded visit, as any number of terrorist groups from Afghanistan and Pakistan were vying to take his life." He noted that “India’s co-operation with the Northern Alliance is still largely an untold account. A more complete narration of it has to wait.”

Ebrahim Raisi elected Iran President in a no contest

Raisi, Iran’s chief justice who was elected President last week, received almost 62% of votes but only after the Guardian Council debarred all prominent moderates and reformists from contesting. The purge was such that Raisi himself is said to have urged the watchdog to reconsider its decision.

Raisi was accused of having recommended several members of the Council in 2019 and had sought Parliament’s approval. The election was also marred by the disclosure that more than 12% of Iranian voters opted to cast invalid ballots – the percentage being three times higher than in any other presidential election.

Also, for the first time, non-voters outnumbered voters in an Iranian presidential election. Only 28.9 million out of more than 59 million eligible voters cast their ballots, a record-low turnout of 48.7%. The figure further drops to 42.5% when invalid votes are excluded. In the three previous presidential elections, the turnout was above 70%.

The outgoing administration of Hassan Rouhani failed to pursue its ambitious agenda for the economy, focusing its energy on negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal endorsed by the UN. But President Trump withdrew the US from the accord in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Iran. The sanctions are said to have decimated the pro-reform middle class and empowered the conservatives and radicals.

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Hong Kong’s Apple Daily calls it quits after govt crackdown

The 26-year-old pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily in Hong Kong announced closure this week after a crackdown by the police. “Apple Daily thanks its readers, subscribers, advertisers and Hongkongers for their love and support in the past 26 years. Farewell and take care,” it said in a message on Wednesday.

Founded by vocal media mogul and pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai, who has been in jail since December 2020 awaiting trial for sedition, the tabloid was last week raided by the police and its executives and the editor-in-chief arrested. Authorities also froze the newspaper’s bank accounts and followed up with the arrest of an opinion writer. The charges were related to unspecified articles which apparently called for sanctions by foreign governments against China and the Hong Kong administration.

The raid on the newsroom was the second in less than a year, and came with an unprecedented warrant to seize journalistic materials. It froze an estimated HK $18 million in assets, and locked accounts holding more than $500 million, according to Lai’s senior advisor, Mark Simon. The move, occurring before any prosecution had begun, left the company unable to pay for operational costs and wages.

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China recalls its envoy to the US after 8 years

The United States had sought to prop up China as a foil to the erstwhile Soviet Union during the cold war. The historic meeting in 1972 between President Nixon, Mao Ze Dong and the then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger was followed by the US conferring the ‘most favoured nation’ status to China.

In an ironical twist, China and Russia have got closer and the US now sees China as the more potent rival, if not enemy. As US-China relations are at a crossroads, China has recalled its ambassador from Washington Cui Tiankai after a record eight years. He is being replaced by a more hardliner, reports say.

In a message Ambassador Tiankai had this to say this week: “Sino-US relations are at a critical crossroads, and the US’s China policy is undergoing a new round of restructure, facing a choice between dialogue and cooperation, or confrontation and conflict…at this moment, overseas Chinese in the United States shoulder a greater responsibility and mission. I hope you will continue to be a firm promoter and positive contributor to the healthy and stable development of Sino-US relations, and defend your right to be in the US … and safeguard the fundamental interests of the Chinese and American people to promote world peace, stability and prosperity.”

Cui Tiankai is China’s longest-serving ambassador to the US, and was there during a period of upheaval in relations between the two countries under the leadership of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, including a trade war, closure of consulates and restrictions on journalists, criticism over China’s human rights abuses, worsening tensions over Taiwan, and hostility over China’s handling of the pandemic.

Civil strife continues in Myanmar

Although the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling upon Myanmar’s military junta to restore democracy ( 119 countries voted for the resolution but not India) and all member states to “prevent the flow of arms into Myanmar”, a delegation led by the junta leader and army chief Min Aung Hlaing was visiting Russia this week and meeting defence firms and experts.

Reports continue to speak of armed conflict spreading to places other than the bordering areas along Thailand. Firing was reported from Mandalay on Tuesday and a civil rights group put up a post on June 11 saying that 861 civilians had been killed by the junta since February, 5985 arrested while 1,936 civilians have gone underground to evade arrest and detention.

The US embassy in Myanmar tweeted, “We are tracking reports of ongoing fighting in Mandalay, including early reports of possible civilian casualties. We are disturbed by the military escalation and urgently call for a cessation of violence.”

Meanwhile Aung San Suu Kyi’s lawyer, Khin Maung Zaw, has said that he has not met Sean Turnell, an Australian Professor and economic adviser to Suu Kyi since his arrest three months ago. The Macquarie University economics professor has been charged in a Yangon court with breach of official secrets.

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