18% adults in Tamil Nadu would have taken jab by July-end

CHENNAI: By July 31, when the anticipated third wave of Covid-19 may hit, Tamil Nadu would have completed just 18% of its target vaccine doses. And if the state wants to vaccinate all adults at least by the end of the year, it should vaccinate at least 5.6 lakh people every day, TOI analysis shows.
Public health experts say this would mean that many people will still be susceptible to the virus in the third wave. “Vaccines enlarge the umbrella of protection against the current variants and new variants. They can offer high immunity (both antibody and T-cell immunity) and are the best tool we have now to prevent subsequent waves,” Vellore-based senior virologist Dr Jacob John told TOI.
As per the revised midyear population of the health department, Tamil Nadu has 6.16 crore people above the age of 18 years, requiring a total 12.32 crore doses (two doses) of the vaccine. Until Tuesday, 17% of the targeted population have taken at least one dose and just 4% have been administered both doses. This took the dosage tally in the state to 1.32 crore – 10.4% of its target. On Wednesday, 1.7 lakh people took the vaccine.
The state immunisation wing says the state will receive around 83 lakh doses of the vaccine in the next six weeks. This includes 6 lakh vaccines it received on Thursday and another six lakh doses expected by June 30. The Union health ministry has allotted 71.5 lakh doses of vaccine to Tamil Nadu for July (including 17.75 lakh doses to private hospitals). If the state utilises all these doses, then it will be able increase the dosage tally to 2.15 crore — 18% of its target.
While it is hard to determine how much percentage of this will be for first dose and how much of it will be the second dose, if we assume that the share of the vaccine between doses will continue to remain the same, then it will increase the total number of people completely vaccinated in the state to just 5% by July end.
The state is working on multiple strategies such as 100% coverage in high risk groups and small towns to make up for the lag. “But the numbers are there to see. When there is a vaccine, we vaccinate more people. Our peak was 3.9 lakh doses a day,” said joint director immunisation Dr K Vinay Kumar.
More people are now coming forward to take the vaccine. From an average of 83,000 doses in March, the state is now vaccinating 1.8 lakh people a day at government centres. Since May, private hospitals have offered 5.63 lakh doses.
The performance also hasn’t been uniform across districts. For instance, Tiruvannamalai has offered just 6.03% of its target doses. Barring 10 of the 45 health districts in the state, all have reported less than 10.4% of the target. Chennai and the Nilgiris have completed more than 20% of the target doses. Over the next few weeks, the state will offer vaccines to select groups such as tea estate employees, tribals of the Nigiris and residents in tourists hubs such as Nagore and Velankanni in Nagapattinam.