Motilal Oswal's research report on HPCL
HPCL, the darling of deregulation due to its highest leverage to marketing, is soon going to lose its crown with the addition of 5mmtpa/2mmtpa refining capacity at Visakhapatnam/Mumbai by the end of FY22/CY21. Marketing will account for only 52% of total consolidated EBITDA in FY23E v/s 88% in FY21. Due to Visakhapatnam expansion, Rajasthan greenfield project, and marketing, consolidated debt is expected to rise to INR641b in FY23E from INR427b in FY21, 1.5x its current market capitalization. The residual upgradation project (slurry hydrocracker) at Visakhapatnam is of a relatively new technology, with very few precedents globally. It is likely to take longer to stabilize, thereby putting pressure on HPCL’s GRMs.
Outlook
The stock trades at 7.1x FY23E P/E and 8.5x FY23E EV/EBITDA. We value the stock at 1.1x FY23E P/BV and recommend a Neutral rating on the stock with a TP of INR310/share. Major risk to our call would be sustainability of high marketing margin.
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