Rio Tinto and other mining giants dragged stocks in London lower on Monday, amid fears that commodity prices were near the top of a cycle and weakness in both iron and copper.
Rio Tinto
RIO,
UBS downgraded Rio Tinto from neutral to sell with an unchanged target price of £51 ($70.7) per share, noting that the stock’s cash returns were attractive but the macro backdrop was deteriorating. The stock is currently trading above £57.
“In our view current [free cash flow] and dividends are not sustainable as we expect the iron ore price to fall by >50% … over 12-18 months; we do not believe [Rio Tinto’s] valuation is compelling at a ‘normalised’ iron ore price,” analysts at UBS said.
“Near-term risks for the commodity complex are increasing with the Fed turning more hawkish and China taking action to deflate commodities … we expect this to accelerate the unwinding of the ‘reflation trade,’” they added.
Read this on Barron’s: China Moves to Cool Commodities Rally. Mining Stocks Are Falling.
Rio Tinto’s stock slide and the rest of the miners added weight to the FTSE 100
UKX,
European equities initially opened lower, following weakness in Asian markets after indications of coming rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve last week, but rebounded as the trading day got underway.
“Asian markets slumped heavily as investors continued to react to last week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting which has curdled sentiment by raising the prospect of earlier than expected rate rises,” said Russ Mould, an analyst at AJ Bell.
“The FTSE 100 notched up a far more modest fall, having already endured a fair bit of damage at the end of last week linked to concerns about rate rises,” Mould added.
Shares in Senior
SNR,
But the standout stock in London was Morrisons
MRW,
Lloyds Banking
LLOY,