Chesham and Amersham by-election: Who will be the next MP?

Historically, the Chesham and Amersham constituency seat has always been Conservative. As voters prepare to go to the polls on Thursday, how has the by-election campaign played out?

Since being formed in 1974, the constituency has had just two MPs, Sir Ian Gilmour, until 1992, followed by Dame Cheryl Gillan, until she died in April.

In the 13 elections for the parliamentary seat, the Tories have never had less than a 10,000-strong majority.

Even in 1997, when Labour came to power under Tony Blair, Dame Cheryl took the seat with more than half the vote and a majority of almost 14,000.

The HS2 railway project, which will go straight through the middle of the Chilterns Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty at the heart of this seat, could be a key election project.

It was granted Royal Assent in 2017, despite a long campaign of opposition from Dame Cheryl and local groups. The Conservatives won the seat in that year and also in 2019, albeit with a decreased majority on both occasions.

Conservative majority: 16,223. Turnout: 55,978 (76%)

Full results here.

The Tory candidate, Peter Fleet, appears to be singing a similar theme tune to Dame Cheryl in wanting to minimise disruption from HS2, and continuing to fight for The Chilterns to be granted National Park status, which would give it more protection from development.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has appeared in the constituency during the campaign, along with Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove and the Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden.

The Liberal Democrats feel they have a chance this time with candidate Sarah Green, and party leader Sir Ed Davey has visited the constituency a number of times since the election was called.

His party had a decent local election in the county in May as well, gaining a larger share of the votes in the first unitary Buckinghamshire Council election, ending up as the main opposition with 15 councillors (although the Tories have 113). They also took the town council in Amersham along the way.

There are six other candidates who'll be wanting to make history - Natasa Pantelic for Labour, Carolyne Culver for the Greens, former HS2 employee Alex Wilson for Reform UK, Brendan Donnelly for Rejoin EU, Carla Gregory for the Breakthrough Party and Adrian Oliver for the Freedom Alliance Party.

They have all shared their election priorities with the BBC.

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