How BSP split may change the political equation ahead of critical UP polls next year
New Delhi, June 16: The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati's troubles seem to be multiplying with rebel party MLA's planning to form a separate outfit ahead of the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.
With the move, the BSP which once had more than 200 members is now reduced to almost a 'non-entity'. There are 18 BSP MLAs in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly. This is due to large-scale desertion and expulsion of leaders by party supremo Mayawati within a span of 10 years.
While the BJP has been the biggest gainer, SP has also admitted several senior BSP leaders in its ranks.
The recent setbacks make one question clear, whether she will be relevant in Uttar Pradesh?
BSP history of splits
Formed in 1984 by Kanshi Ram, the Bahujan Samaj Party has been prone to splits ever since Mayawati took over the reins of the party.
The first split that the BSP suffered was in 1995 when the infamous state guest house incident took place in Lucknow and the then state BSP president Raj Bahadur crossed over to the Samajwadi Party along with some other legislators. The BSP had won 67 seats in the 1993 elections and some legislators were upset at the hard bargain that Mayawati was then trying to drive with the then Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Kanshi Ram, who was in hospital at the time of the incident, could not intervene and Mayawati''s leadership, apparently, was not acceptable to a section of the BSP MLAs.
The BSP (which again won 67 seats) suffered its biggest split in 1997 when Mayawati pulled out of the coalition with BJP. About 20 BSP MLAs broke away to form the Jantantrik Bahujan Samaj Party and extended support to the then Kalyan Singh government. All of them were made ministers.
Again in 2003, when Mayawati severed her alliance with the BJP and recommended dissolution of the state assembly, about 18 BSP MLAs crossed over to the Samajwadi Party and Mulayam Singh formed the government.
Why a steady exodus?
The BSP president recently expelled two senior leaders, including the BSP's legislature party leader Lalji Verma and its former state unit president Ram Achal Rajbhar for anti-party activities during the panchayat elections.
Over the past four years, Mayawati has expelled as many as eleven rebel BSP MLAs after reports of them jumping ship emerged. Aslam Raini, Aslam Ali Chowdhari, Muztaba Siddiqui, Hakim Lal Bind, Hargobind Bhargav, Sushma Patel, Vandana Singh, Ramvir Upadhyay and Anil Singh had been expelled by BSP supremo, Mayawati in the past four years after the 2017 elections in UP.
The BSP won 19 seats in the elections and lost one in a by-poll. The BSP has 18 MLAs in the UP assembly and Mayawati had expelled 11 in the past four years. The seven MLAs who rebelled during the Rajya Sabha elections last year were expelled and that leaves the party with only seven MLAs in the assembly. These MLAs have however not been disqualified in the assembly as yet.
What now for BSP's Mayawati
Even as ruling BJP, opposition parties like SP and Congress have begun their poll preparations for the UP polls in 2022, the BSP's future is not known.
The BSP supremo seems to be in no mood to reclaim her position in the opposition turf. She has gone into a shell since the 2019 polls and has not come out of her bungalow.
The BSP's best performance dates back to 2009, when the party formed the government with 206 seats out of 403 and a vote share of 30%. Over the years it has fallen to 80 seats (25%) in 2012 and 19 seats (22%) in 2017.
Since snapping the alliance with SP, BSP, Mayawati's BSP has hit a rock bottom. Both SP and BSP have hardened their stance since 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, if BSP-SP comes together with a promise that their alliance will give Uttar Pradesh a new Chief Minister, chances are wide open for BSP to stay in power.