A reduction in animal numbers will be necessary to meet the agricultural sector’s target to reduce overall emissions by 51pc by 2030 compared to 2018 levels, Professor Alan Matthews of Trinity College Dublin has warned.
Addressing the Joint Committee on Environment and Climate Action this afternoon, the leading economist with a specific interest in agricultural policy, outlined his views on incentives that will be necessary to meet this ambitious target over the next decade.
Sadhbh O’Neill of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition also spoke at the committee meeting chaired by Green Party TD Brian Leddin.
Prof Matthews, who also contributes to the Farming Independent, prefaced his position by reiterating that agricultural emissions make up 35pc of the country’s total emissions, excluding those from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.
He said that agricultural emissions were 21.2 MtCO2e (metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2019), compared to 19.3 MtCO2e in 1990 and the low point of 18.5 MtCO2e in 2011; while adding that the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) expects emissions to further increase by 2.5pc under a “with existing measures” scenario by 2030.
"Agricultural emissions are going in the wrong direction,” said the professor. "At the same time, there are significant net emissions from the LULUCF sector, mainly from drained organic soils and wetlands of around 8 MtCO2e, only partially offset by net removals by the forest sector and harvested wood products of 4.5 MtCO2e.
"Agricultural emissions are almost entirely methane and nitrous oxide, driven mainly by ruminant animal numbers, manure management and the use of chemical nitrogen.
"There are some technical and management solutions available and in use that can help to reduce use of chemical nitrogen and emissions of nitrous oxide, but their uptake needs to be greatly accelerated.
"At this point in time, there are few technical and management options available to farmers to reduce methane emissions, which implies that a reduction in animal numbers will be necessary to meet the 51pc target,” he said.
The TCD academic outlined that this can be achieved by “incentivising farmers” to switch grassland to alternative land uses, or by encouraging more extensive systems of production on remaining grassland.
"When designing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the Climate Amendment Bill requires that the Government must take account of the special economic and social role of agriculture, including with regard to the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane.
"Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Its concentration in the atmosphere must be reduced if we are to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature target. But it does not have to be reduced to zero.
Rising methane emissions add significantly to global warming. Continued emissions of methane at a broadly stable level (3pc reduction per decade) do not add to global warming although they sustain warming that has already occurred.
Sustained reductions in methane emissions reverse global warming and effectively cool the planet from existing levels. So reducing methane emissions represents an important mitigation opportunity,” he said.
Against this background, the professor tabled three messages for the cross-party committee.
"First, we need to invest in measuring and monitoring farm-level emissions and removals. Each farmer needs to know what their greenhouse gas budget is and how this budget is affected when they change their farm output and farming practices.
“Every member of this committee will be aware that if you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it.
"Second, we need to catch up and invest properly in innovation that addresses the climate challenge in agriculture.
"Members do not need to be reminded of the billions that are being invested in the development of alternative proteins by private equity funds at the present time," he said adding that innovation must focus on specific areas.
"Our efforts to improve the sustainability of ruminant grass-based agriculture are puny by comparison and relatively recent. There is great potential in learning how to manage microbes in the rumen, in manure and in the soil to minimise emissions.
"We need to invest much more in nature-based solutions to understand the contribution our soils, wetlands and peatlands as well as agro-forestry, hedgerows and forests can make to offset agricultural emissions.
"We need to invest much more in potential alternative land uses that are suited to Irish agro-ecological conditions and attractive to farmers.
"Existing efforts looking at the potential for grass protein, renewable energy and biomass, as well as conventional and unconventional land uses, need to be stepped up,” he said.
The professor’s third message for the committee was that measurement and innovation will not alone get the sector to where it needs to be unless action is incentivised across tens of thousands of farms.
"This will only happen if we put a price on emissions and removals and pay for performance. We know that farmers respond to incentives.
"The European Commission in its Farm to Fork Strategy has introduced the idea of carbon farming as a new business model for farmers. The intention is to create direct incentives for land managers and farmers to increase and protect carbon sinks in the land sector.
"A similar model should also be applied to agricultural emissions consisting of methane and nitrous oxide.
"Considerable funding can be made available for climate action through the new CAP Strategic Plan and the Government has earmarked a further €1.5 billion in proceeds from the carbon tax to encourage and incentivise farmers to farm in a greener and more sustainable way.”
He warned that previous agri-environment-climate schemes, such as GLAS, may have had benefits for biodiversity, but have had “no impact on emissions reduction”.
"We need innovation in policy design. We need measures that explicitly focus on reducing net emissions accompanied by reduction targets, not the rather diffuse measures that have characterised climate action in agriculture to date.
"One could imagine inviting bids using a reverse auction process from groups of farmers who commit to reducing emissions below a baseline level, whether through stock reduction, nature-based offsets, or changes in land use.
"Once farm-level greenhouse budgets are rolled out to most farms, one could envisage introducing a cap-and-trade scheme where an overall emissions ceiling would be set for Irish agriculture and farms could trade emissions permits among themselves.
"Perverse subsidies such as the VAT exemption for fertilisers should be removed and the savings recycled to promote more climate-friendly farming.
"To incentivise agriculture to step up and address the climate crisis requires new and innovative approaches, business as usual is no longer an option,” the professor concluded.
