The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) along with its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) have been in power for 52 of the 72 post-war years in Germany. Together referred to as Union, they have been largely responsible for political stability in the European powerhouse. Its Chancellors have tended to have eras instead of terms and three of them went on to serve 4 consecutive terms (Adenauer, Kohl and Merkel). This is a daunting legacy for a successor and after much deliberation the Union has chosen Armin Laschet, the Prime Minister of its most populous state North Rhine-Westphalia, to lead its campaign.
The 61-year-old Laschet comes from the Burtscheid district of Aachen very close to the tri-junction of Belgium, The Netherlands and Germany. It partially explains his non-sectarian and pan-European outlook. He has been in active politics since 1994 when he was first elected to the Bundestag. Laschet later entered the European Parliament (1999-2005) post which he reverted to state politics. He occupied important ministerial positions in the state cabinet, became leader of the state CDU in 2012, and since 2017 is the Prime Minister of the state which has the maximum seats in the Bundestag.
Scouting for a successor to Merkel was never going to be easy for the Union and it has caused a massive upheaval within the party. In the last 16 years, Merkel had consolidated her hold on the party, dominated national politics, was unrivaled on the European platform, and gained massive stature on the international stage. Having announced her decision to step down way back in 2018, she anointed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (AKK) as her successor. AKK wasn’t able to control different factions within the party and didn’t even last one full year. The pandemic delayed the identification of a new head for another year and the uncertainty in the Interregnum gave rise to some serious infighting within the CDU.
Counting on his long years in the party and executive positions, Laschet threw his hat in the ring early in the game. He had to contend with an invigorated campaign from long-time Merkel critic Friedrich Merz. With Merkel finally out of his way, the socially conservative and economically liberal Merz went all out in his third attempt to capture the top party job. The elections went into a run-off and it required all the centrists in the party to close ranks behind Laschet to secure his election as the Chairperson of the party in January 2021.
Winning the CDU chairpersonship isn’t enough to get the Chancellorship nomination given the two-party one-entity nature of the Union. In the intra-party as well as opinion polls, the CSU leader Markus Söder was almost thrice as popular compared to Laschet. As a matter of fact, a big block even preferred the Health Minister Jens Spahn over Laschet due to the latter’s able handling of the pandemic. While Merz represented the past and opposition to Merkel, Söder stood for a fresh start post-Merkel and came across as forward-looking. That explains his enormous appeal within Union rank and file which though respects Merkel’s legacy but is unwilling to prolong it. But the mercurial and charismatic Söder is also too direct and often lands in controversies. In April, the CDU/CSU board preferred reliability over unpredictability which lead to Armin Laschet being nominated as the Chancellor candidate of the Union despite popular opinion within the party being unfavorable to him.
Laschet has pro-business views which at times are in conflict with conversation around sustainable energy goals. This is a topic that will feature prominently in the Chancellor debate as the direct fight is now between the Union and the Greens. Laschet’s home state North Rhine-Westphalia also has the highest coal consumption which is going to be another handicap for him. Laschet is banking too much on his image of being affable, approachable, reliable, and someone who stands for continuity. He has stood solidly behind most of Merkel’s tough decisions – most importantly during the immigration crisis. His support for a multicultural German society was interpreted as welcoming immigrants and earned him the nickname “Turkish Armin”. That gives enough ammunition to the far-right and anti-immigrant AfD to tie Laschet down during the campaign.
He is a big votary of German-French cooperation and being a fluent French speaker, has a great equation with the French President Emmanuel Macron. His critics see a risk of the affable German getting dominated by the strong Frenchman if he were to land the top job. Laschet’s defense of the Russian President Vladimir Putin on topics like the annexation of Crimea and poisoning of his opponent Alexei Navalny have been making headlines as is his support for the controversial Nord Stream 2. Laschet is also soft on China as he wants to protect the interests of the German industry and is largely accommodative on the Huawei 5G debate.
All said and done CDU/CSU is still the single largest party in the opinion polls. The favorable results in the Saxony-Anhalt regional elections have provided fresh wind in the sails. Having been overtaken by the Greens for a while they are again pulling away to establish a sizeable lead.
There are plenty of hotspots around which the battle lines are getting drawn. But there is an uber theme in this election which has an inbuilt contrarian strain. On the one hand, it is about finding a successor to Angela Merkel, and on the other hand, there is an innate desire to move away from Merkelism in a post-Merkel world. One of these impulses will have a bigger say in September. That will be the single biggest factor which will decide if it will the continuity and reliability candidate Laschet of CDU/CSU or the change and freshness candidate Baerbock of the Greens that will pip the other to the post.
German polity has seen an evolution resulting in the decline of two big parties CDU/CSU and SPD. Now there are multiple parties – FDP, AFD, the Left, and of course the Greens at >10% vote share mark which makes a simple majority impossible to achieve for any single party. In fact, this time a coming together of two parties with maximum votes may not be enough to cross the 50% mark. Speculation is rife on various possible coalitions where all permutation that excludes the far-right AfD is Kosher.
Zeyaur Rahman holds a Masters degree from JNU. Along with his day job, he blogs on socio-political affairs and curates subaltern historical & anecdotal content. He can be reached Twitter: @rahman_zeyaur)
This is the third part of a series profiling the major contenders for German chancellorship. The first and second part can be accessed here.