Retail forecast raised with 2021 sales now expected to top $4.44 trillion

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The National Retail Federation is now forecasting that retail sales will grow between 10.5% and 13.5% to reach more than $4.44 trillion. The NRF previously forecast growth of 6.5% to 8.2%. "The initial forecast was made when there was still great uncertainty about consumer spending, vaccine distribution, virus infection rates and additional fiscal stimulus, prior to passage of the American Rescue Plan Act," the group said in a statement. Online sales are expected to grow between 18% and 23% to a range of $1.09 trillion to $1.13 trillion. Emarketer is forecasting a 17.9% jump in online sales to $933.30 billion, up from its January prediction of a 13.7% increase. "While there are downside risks related to worker shortages, an overheating economy, tax increases and over-regulation, overall households are healthier, and consumers are demonstrating their ability and willingness to spend," said Matthew Shay, NRF chief executive, in a statement. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT, -1.15% has gained nearly 50% for the year to date. The Amplify Online Retail ETF IBUY, -0.70% is up 9.3%. And the benchmark S&P 500 index SPX, +0.41% has rallied 13.1% for 2021 so far.

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