South Africa is going through its worst phase in international cricket since their return from Apartheid in 1991. The sudden retirement of their big three in batting - AB de Villiers, Hashim Amla and Faf du Plessis from Test cricket - has been cited as the main reason for this dramatic fall in the last three years. However, the dearth of big runs is not the only reason that South Africa have lost as many as five of their last seven series. Their biggest match winner since 2016, Kagiso Rabada who had a meteoric rise for the first four years in Test cricket, has seen a significant fall in his performances since 2019 - and this is the major reason for South Africa’s dwindling fortunes in the format in the last two and a half years.
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The Rise of Rabada
Rabada had a stunning start to his Test career. He was the leading wicket-taker amongst fast bowlers in the world with 168 wickets in 35 matches at an average of 21.41 since his debut against India in Mohali in November, 2015 till February 2019. Fast, accurate and relentless - Rabada was tormenting opposition line-ups all over the world during this period.
What stood out for Rabada was his ability to take heaps of wickets and run through top and middle orders of the opposition. His strike rate of 38.4, was, by some distance, the best in the world in this time-frame (min. 50 wickets). He was followed by Pakistan’s Mohammad Abbas who was some miles away with a bowling strike rate of 46. Just for perspective, Starc (46.4), Morkel (46.5), Cummins (47.5), Bumrah (49.3) and Philander (50.1) were all chasing up to Rabada who was in a league of his own in this period.
He rose to glory topping the wicket-charts in just his second series - picking 22 wickets in three matches at home against England in early 2016. There was no looking back.
Rabada was South Africa’s highest wicket-taker on their successful tour Down Under late in 2016 bagging 15 wickets and playing a pivotal role with the ball in the 2-1 victory.
He was the joint-highest, highest and second-highest wicket taker in three successive big home series’ wins for South Africa in 2018 - against India, Australia and Pakistan.
Rabada also stood out for the timing of his wickets in this period - 108 of his 168 wickets (almost 65%) in this time-frame were of batsmen before they reached a total of 20 which suggested that he was striking early and sending the batsmen packing before they could cause any damage.
South Africa won 9 of their 13 series in this period and lost just 4. Even during this time of success, South Africa’s big three were on the decline. AB de Villiers has an average of 42.92 and was a patch of the great he was in the period before, Du Plessis averaged 36.78, Amla - 37.28, Duminy - 29.39 and Elgar -40.33. Thus, there was no outstanding batsman for South Africa in this period.
However they had a outstanding bowler at the peak of his prowess still helping his team win a majority of the series they played.
But eventually the exit of AB and Amla and the continuous dip in the batting fortunes for South Africa took its toll on Rabada too.
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The Fall
None of the South African batsmen average in the 40s (or above) since the home series against Sri Lanka in February, 2019 - the start of the downfall of the country in Test cricket. They were beaten 2-0 a home in what was a historic loss! It was the first time that an Asian team had won a Test series in South Africa.
South Africa have lost 4 of their 5 series starting from the debacle against Sri Lanka. India humiliated them in a 3-0 whitewash at home, England battered them 3-1 in South Africa while Pakistan most recently beat them 2-0 at home in 2021.
This period has coincided with a stunning fall in Rabada’s form and numbers. He has managed to pick just 34 wickets in 10 matches since the Sri Lanka series at an average of 33.02 and strike rate of 58.1. This means Rabada is conceding around 12 runs more per wicket and taking as many as 20 deliveries more to pick a wicket in the last two and a half years.
Compared to his 9 five-wicket hauls in an innings and 4 ten-wicket hauls in a match, Rabada has not picked even one fifer since February, 2019.
Rabada seems to have suffered more after the retirement and bowing out of the three other greats in the fast bowling unit - Morkel (April 2018), Steyn (in February 2019) and Philander (January 2020). He was at his devastating best when he was a part of the pace quartet and in fact the leader of the pack from his debut till early 2019. But the exit of the other three not only increased the work load of Rabada but also put extra pressure on him as the lead bowler of an inexperienced attack.
It also meant that he was bowling longer spells in stead of the short bursts that made him more lethal and effective - from around 16.5 overs per innings in the period before, Rabada delivered a little more than 19 overs per innings post February 2019 - this extra workload ought to have played a major role in his diminishing returns with the red ball.
The West Indies series provides a good opportunity for Rabada to get back to form. Much would also depend on how he is used by South Africa. They have to use him in short bursts in order to extract the maximum out of him. The pace bowler will have to play a leading role if the country’s fortunes in Test cricket are to be reversed.
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