Manchin's staunch opposition to ending filibuster puts Biden's agenda in jeopardy

WASHINGTON – Much of President Joe Biden's legislative agenda may be in peril after Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., doubled down on his opposition to overhauling the filibuster, jeopardizing everything from the president's goals on voting rights and immigration reform to gun control and infrastructure.

The moderate Democrat, in an op-ed Sunday in the Charleston Gazette-Mail, not only revealed his opposition to the Democratic-backed For the People Act but reiterated he won't vote to weaken or eliminate the filibuster.

Manchin dashed hopes on the left that recent events might compel him to reconsider his support for keeping the filibuster, the Senate's 60-vote rule to bring legislation to a vote that can be used by the minority party – in this case Republicans – to block legislation. Republican-controlled state legislatures continue to enact voting restrictions, and Republican U.S. senators last month blocked the creation of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, which drew the disappointment of Manchin.

"Joe Manchin has become the new Mitch McConnell," Rep. Jamaal Bowman, a progressive Democratic from New York, said in an interview Monday on CNN, referring to the Republican Senate leader's stop-at-all-costs approach to former President Barack Obama's agenda and now Biden's. "Manchin is not putting us closer to bipartisanship. He is doing the work of the Republican Party."

More: Joe Manchin will oppose For the People Act, putting Senate's voting rights bill in peril

For Biden and Democrats, the ramifications of Manchin ruling out changes to the filibuster are significant. It means Democrats would need the support of at least 10 Republicans to pass most bills in a Senate split 50-50 between Republicans and Democratic caucus members.

That includes finding Republicans to pass an infrastructure package even as weeks of negotiations with a group of Republican senators haven't resulted in a deal. Although Manchin supported using a procedural move known as budget reconciliation to pass Biden's COVID-19 rescue plan in March with only support of Democrats, he has indicated he wants a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure.

A comprehensive immigration bill Biden sent to Congress on the president's first day of office probably has no chance under filibuster rules. Democrats will have an uphill climb to find 10 votes to pass gun legislation requiring background checks or to ban assault weapons. And Manchin's opposition to the For the People Act – which would effectively override GOP voting restrictions at the state level – leaves the bill without a majority of support in the Senate.

"It's a real blow," said William Howell, a political scientist at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy, pointing to Biden's proposals on climate change, immigration and tax increases on corporations as areas now more likely to fail. "The immediate setback concerns the sheer number of policy initiatives that now don't stand much of a chance of becoming law. There aren't prospects for meaningful change legislatively now."

Howell said Biden will be in a position to pursue some things administratively or via executive action, "but the ambition we saw with the Biden agenda has been kneecapped by this." He said the consequences go beyond what Biden can accomplish to a more fundamental question: Can the federal government still work to solve big problems?

"Here, too, this is a setback because it's hard to see how we make headway on democracy reform as long as the legislative process is just mired in gridlock."

White House claims good relationship with Manchin

Manchin's op-ed came after Biden last week singled out the senator and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz. – another moderate Democrat who has defended the filibuster – when Biden lamented on the struggle to pass parts of his agenda. Manchin's moderate politics have enabled him to win elections in conservative West Virginia, even as the state turns overwhelmingly Republican, but puts him frequently at odds with other Democrats in Washington.

More: Biden singles out Senate Democrats Manchin and Sinema, White House downplays remarks

The outsized role of Manchin was on display at Monday's White House news briefing when press secretary Jen Psaki was peppered with questions about Manchin's opposition to overhauling the filibuster and passing the For the People Act. His name was mentioned 17 times.

"We're certainly not ready to accept that analysis," Psaki said of Manchin posing an obstacle to Biden's agenda, calling the senator "a friend" of Biden's and vowing to continue to work with him. She said the White House is in "close touch" with Manchin on infrastructure and other issues regularly.

In his op-ed opposing the For the People Act, Manchin said legislation seeking to protect the right to vote should not be passed on party lines, arguing "partisan voting legislation will destroy the already weakening binds of our democracy."

Manchin did not criticize specifics of the bill, which would loosen photo identification rules to vote, require a bipartisan commission to oversee congressional redistricting and protect early voting and mail voting, among a host of other measures. The bill, opposed universally by Republicans, passed the Democratic-controlled House in March.

Progressives quickly blasted Manchin. Ben Jealous, president of the left-leaning People For the American Way, said Manchin was "misguided and misinformed" for opposing the For the People Act, arguing it has bipartisan support from American voters.

"His demand for Senate Republican support ignores the fact that the far-right-dominated Republican Party in Congress will not negotiate in good faith and has proven it over and over, most recently in their opposition to creating a bipartisan January 6 Commission."

White House not conceding on For the People

Civil rights leaders including the Rev. Al Sharpton, Derrick Johnson, president and CEO of the NAACP, and Marc Morial, president and CEO of the National Urban League, met with Manchin Tuesday on voting rights. The group called the gathering "productive" and said they conveyed to Manchin that a "minority of senators must not be able to abuse the filibuster to impede much-needed progress."

Despite Manchin's opposition, Psaki said, the president supports the For the People Act and would not concede that the legislation is dead.

More: What you should know about W. Va. Sens. Manchin and Capito

"Now in terms of the path forward, and what that looks like and the mechanics of how it moves forward in Congress, the president is quite open and willing to work with anyone to enact common-sense reforms that benefit the American people," Psaki said. "We will stay lockstep with Democratic leadership on what that looks like from here."

Instead of passing the bill's Senate version of the For the People Act, Manchin argued the upper chamber should pass a reinforced version of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which would reinstate the 1965 Voting Rights Act with some additional provisions. Passing it appears a more realistic option for Democrats.

Biden could also find a bipartisan victory with policing reform as talks continue after the killings of unarmed African Americans sparked nationwide racial justice protests last year. Rep. Karen Bass, D-Calif., wrote legislation the House passed in March with provisions such as banning choke holds and creating a national database of police misconduct. She has been negotiating with Sens. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and Cory Booker, D-N.J., to reach a compromise that could pass the Senate on contentious questions such as allowing civil lawsuits against police.

The talks missed Biden's informal deadline for a compromise by May 25, the one-year anniversary of George Floyd’s death. But lawmakers on both sides have said the negotiations are productive and have an informal goal to finish in June.

'Several paths' remain for infrastructure, White House says

As for infrastructure, negotiations continue to drag between a group of Republican senators and the White House without a deal in sight. Biden rejected a modest $50 billion increase to the GOP's proposal on Friday. The president reduced his package to $1 trillion in new spending, but the gap remains significant. Republicans' $978 billion offer includes about $300 billion in spending. Biden was set to speak with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., lead negotiator for Republicans, before he departs Wednesday for Europe.

"We have several paths," Psaki said Monday. "That's the good sign."

One of those paths, she said, remains negotiations with the group led by Capito. A second path is infrastructure legislation that House Democrats are set to begin drafting Wednesday. She pointed to proposals from other members of Congress as a third route. Manchin is working with a bipartisan group of senators on infrastructure that includes Sinema and Republican Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah and Rob Portman of Ohio.

More: Biden offers to keep 2017 Trump tax cuts intact in infrastructure counteroffer to GOP

Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, said the threat of a filibuster should not surprise the White House given that Manchin never expressed support for eliminating it. She called getting 10 Republicans to back many of the president's priorities a "pretty daunting challenge "

She said Manchin is likely to face more pressure from the left to support passing Biden's infrastructure package using reconciliation if talks with Republicans fizzle.

"Right now, I think Manchin still thinks that there's hope there are places where there can be compromise," she said. "In the next few weeks, I think it's going to be clear whether that's actually true. If they're able to eke out a deal on infrastructure, then I think Manchin will feel justified."

The White House would not say whether it has an agreement with Manchin that he would support reconciliation on infrastructure if negotiations fail.

"I’m certainly not going to speak on behalf of where Senator Manchin is," Psaki said, calling it "positive signs" that he has expressed interest in major investments in infrastructure and openness to raising the corporate tax rate. "We'll let him speak for himself on where he stands on any pieces of legislation."

Contributing: Bart Jansen. Reach Joey Garrison on Twitter @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Manchin's continued opposition to filibuster threatens Biden's agenda