Task Force predicts Covid-19 ‘third wave’ in Andhra Pradesh might affect 4.5 lakh kids

VIJAYAWADA: Noting that it is not possible to precisely predict the trajectory of a possible Covid-19 third wave, the Andhra Pradesh Paediatric Covid-19 Task Force Committee has projected that it might affect 18 lakh people in the State and around 4.5 lakh (25% of the total) could be children. About 90% of children (around 4.05 lakh) may need home isolation as they are likely to be mild cases. Around 36,000 children affected by Covid may be admitted to hospitals and another 9,000 in ICUs. 

The committee, which submitted its first report on ‘Paediatric Covid-19 management in possible third wave’ stated that the State government has to be prepared to treat 45,000 affected children and in the worst scenario, 533 children may be admitted to hospitals a day on an average.“We need to be prepared to treat 45,000 children over a period of 5-6 months with peak number of cases during the second -  third month from the beginning of possible third wave. Assuming that 80 per cent of the 45,000 children get admitted to hospitals in two months in that worst scenario. The State needs 2,750 beds dedicated to paediatric patients assuming that the average length of hospital stay is five days. Of the 45,000 cases, 9,000 may require PICU. 

“In that case, 7,200 PICU admissions need to be done, which comes to 120 cases per day. Assuming that the average length of stay in PICU is eight days, we may roughly require close to 1,000 PICU beds,” the report said, adding that 75% of cases comes to government hospitals. The 16-page report of the committee was discussed at the review meet on Covid chaired by the Chief Minister on Monday.  

The CM gave specific instructions to officials on preparedness of the State to face the possible third wave at the meeting. The committee, in its report, said it was incorrect to say that children were not infected by Covid in the first and second waves. “They are infected but are asymptomatic or developed mild (fever alone) illness. Hence, parents are being advised to keep their children away from grandparents (elderly) or those at most-risk of getting severe illness,’’ it said and added that paediatric age groups were relatively spared during the first and second waves.

The report further said there may be an apparent increase in the absolute number of cases among children. “This may happen because the number of adults to be affected might be less due to acquired and vaccine related immunity. However, we do not anticipate any change (or increase) in the severity of illness and frequency of severity of illness among children,” it said. The committee, however, felt that the need for acute ventilatory care to the affected children is unlikely. It further said management of Covid- 19 among children with congenital disorders like down syndrome, heart and metabolic diseases, is a ‘bit challenging’ and parents need to be prepared to deal with the situation. It suggested appropriate use of medications, especially rational use of antibiotics.

The report noted that as immunity in children is not as developed as elders, they may not be able to report symptoms. Summarising, the report stated that the timing for the possible third wave is unknown and the variations in the virus are unpredictable. “With the current low and slow testing capacity and negligible sequencing in the country, we may not be able to characterise the variant soon enough, which is most critical element in addressing the right population and the outbreak at large,’’ it said, adding that in the absence of early characterisation of variants, it cannot be predicted whether adults may be more affected or children, in a timely manner. “It depends on agent factors i.e., how much the virus changes,’’ the report said. Based on what is currently known, it is quite possible that there may be an apparent rise in the absolute number of Covid cases in children during the third wave, the committee opined.

Jabs for women with below 5-year kids  
Public Health and Family Welfare Director T Geeta Prasadini directed medical officers to prepare the list of mothers having children with below five years of age village-wise. Tokens will be issued to all the mothers one day before vaccination as per vaccine availability