Philip Morris International Stock Appears To Be Modestly Overvalued
- By GF Value
The stock of Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM, 30-year Financials) appears to be modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $97.9 per share and the market cap of $152.6 billion, Philip Morris International stock shows every sign of being modestly overvalued. GF Value for Philip Morris International is shown in the chart below.
Because Philip Morris International is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which is estimated to grow 3.70% annually over the next three to five years.
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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Philip Morris International has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.13, which which ranks worse than 78% of the companies in Tobacco Products industry. The overall financial strength of Philip Morris International is 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Philip Morris International is poor. This is the debt and cash of Philip Morris International over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Philip Morris International has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $29.1 billion and earnings of $5.55 a share. Its operating margin of 41.96% better than 90% of the companies in Tobacco Products industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Philip Morris International's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of Philip Morris International over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Philip Morris International is -0.2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Tobacco Products industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 0.2%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Tobacco Products industry.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Philip Morris International's return on invested capital is 37.71, and its cost of capital is 5.83. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Philip Morris International is shown below:
In conclusion, Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM, 30-year Financials) stock is estimated to be modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Tobacco Products industry. To learn more about Philip Morris International stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
