By: Holiram Terang
The rebel groups of Karbi Anglong are slated to sign an agreement with the government soon. There are some speculations, especially on social media, on the issues that could be included in the agreement.
All the groups that are to sign the agreement profess to fight for the autonomy of Karbi people, ranging from an Autonomous State to a full-fledged separate state, for the hill districts of Karbi Anglong, Dima Hasao, and West Karbi Anglong. Therefore, it is natural for some people to hope that the government will pave the way for the creation of an Autonomous State through this accord. However there is also an opinion that the upcoming accord could rather harm the interests of the hill people. There are other views as well.
The rebel groups have already been unarmed thereby losing their main strength of power to negotiate. They are now in no position to compel the government in accepting their core demands like the creation of an Autonomous State. What could be expected from this agreement is some changes in the administrative setup of the present structure that could ostensibly benefit the hill people.
It would not be surprising if proposals for some changes in the electoral process of the autonomous councils are also included in the agreement. Some seemingly new arrangements may also be made in the autonomous council’s relation with the state and Union governments without practically diluting the hold of the two governments over the councils. There may also be proposals to meet the long pending demands of the Karbis living in the plains districts of Assam. Financial packages to the tune of hundred of crores of rupees and rehabilitation of the former rebels through some government schemes could also be included in the accord.
It would not be rational to expect the government to agree to the creation of an Autonomous State. The BJP would not concede such a major devolution of power when the party is all for consolidating more power in the Centre especially after Modi took the reins in Delhi. Moreover it does not need to appease the hill people as it thinks the area is already firmly in its fold. However, it might want to consolidate its base here. The number of representatives in the assembly and the parliament from these hill districts might be small but there are times when even such small numbers are also required to add up to a big sum.
It would be pertinent to keep in mind that governments the world over, under any political dispensation, are loath to parting with power unless they are under some compulsion. The BJP is under no compulsion to devolve powers to the hill people of Assam. The BJP would aim to make political gains both for the present and the future. It might need a more dedicated force to ensure victory in the coming Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council election. This move might also be part of the long term plans of the BJP for a permanent foothold in Assam. The BJP was lucky enough to scrape through the recently held Assam Assembly election.
This forthcoming agreement could be part of the larger strategy of constructing new political equations in Assam that would be more durable than the present ones. This style of creating new vote banks is obviously borrowed from the Congress.
The Centre might also aim to snuff out the desire of the hill people for more autonomy in present Assam through an agreement with these groups. Yet one hoped that this would be the last armed struggle of its kind in this part of the state.