Use ‘end of circuit breaker’ model for unlock: Experts

BENGALURU: Even as lockdown restrictions continue to be in place in Karnataka, experts feel that the state must now start planning for a staggered unlock as fresh Covid-19 cases are not falling at a uniform rate across the state. They suggest a two-pronged, evidence-based unlock in a phase-wise manner employing the ‘End of Circuit Breaker’ model followed by Singapore.

“The Covid-19 expert committee should continue to monitor the 7-day test positivity rate and should recommend lifting of curbs only when it falls below 5 per cent. We must follow the Singapore model of unlocking in three phases,” Dr Vishal Rao, head and neck oncologist, HCG Hospitals and also member of Covid-19 advisory committee, told TNIE.

Elaborating, he said, “In Phase-1 (safe-reopening), we must resume low transmission-risk economic activities, but prohibit social and entertainment activities. In Phase-2 (safe transition), if the community transmission rate remains low and stable (TPR<5%), more activities, including social activities in small groups, can resume. In Phase-3 (safe state), we should continue to ease measures gradually until we achieve vaccine coverage of 60 per cent, which should be done on a war-footing by importing additional vaccine candidates, if required.”Experts also feel that the state’s containment strategy should be extremely rigid.

Dr Giridhara R Babu, epidemiologist and member of Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), says the way forward is to ensure aggressive containment and accelerated vaccination programme as strategies for return of normalcy. “Both these measures are equally important. Aggressive containment involves enhanced testing followed by strengthening of syndromic approach with meticulous contact tracing. At the same time, we have to have a detailed planning to vaccinate every eligible person,” he added.

However, doctors also explain that it is important for people to now accept and acknowledge that our reopening plans will not be returning to life before Covid. “We must get used to a new normal by adopting Covid-19-appropriate behaviour and technology so that we can carry out our daily activities safely while keeping the virus at bay,” Dr Manjunath C N, Director, Jayadeva Hospital and TAC member, said. He also suggested that the state can now look at unlocking only those districts where the TPR is below 5%, while continuing with strict curbs in rural areas where TPR is above 5%.

“The state should continue to increase testing, ramp up vaccination, augment beds and infrastructure and prevent formation of large clusters for at least till year end. If, at any time, TPR rises above 5%, the state should be prepared to go back into a two-week lockdown period following a continuous cycle of lock-unlock until a satisfactory level of population immunity is achieved through vaccination and tracking of natural infections,” Dr Manjunath said.Increase in cases/deaths, doubling time of infections, high positivity rate, high occupancy rate in hospitals are some of the factors that must be considered while taking a call on lifting the lockdown, experts added.