ICC World Cup Expansion - The Debate Is Between Cricket Going Global & Maintaining Its Quality and Competitiveness

The ICC Board took a number of big decisions relating to the mega world events in the sport for the cycle between 2024 and 2031. Amongst these was the expansion of the flagship 50-over World Cup which will comprise of 14 teams in 2027 and 2031. This has re-opened an old debate of increasing participation vs quality and competitive matches.

The ICC has proposed going back to the Super Sixes format which was used in 1999 and 2003 as opposed to the ‘league’ format which was in play in the 1992 and 2019 editions and will be the format used for the 2023 edition too hosted by India.

The Debate – Expansion vs Quality

The 1992 and 2019 World Cups – High Quality, Competitive & Rewarding The Best

The 1992 World Cup format saw a total of 9 countries with each team playing the other once before the top 4 progressed to the semi-finals. It was considered to be the most fair and unbiased format amongst all as every team was tested against every other which ensured that only the ‘best’ made it to the knockouts – that is the semi-finals. Even if a big team was upset by a minnow in a couple of matches, the format allowed for them to make a comeback and hence prove their worthiness for a finish in the top 4. This format basically ensured that none of the ‘upsets’ upset the overall balance and structure of the tournament. It also meant that a minnow or a second-grade team had absolutely no chance of making it to the semi-final as it would not be able to consistently beat top-grade sides in the competition.

Thus, in a nutshell, this format ensured that only the most deserving and consistent teams made it to the semi-finals.

The 1992 World Cup was amongst the most thrilling and high quality tournaments in terms of matches and competition thus it further gave validity to the format. The way Pakistan fought back and against all odds still made it to the semi-finals, with almost no one giving them a chance, was as much a testimony of the ‘format’ which allowed them to stage a fightback as it was of their own brilliant display, skill and leadership.

The same format was used in 2019 with the only difference being the extra 10th team instead of 9. It was a departure from the 2015 World Cup format where 14 teams took part in the tournament with a ‘high number of one-sided’ matches being cited as the reason to fall back to the league format with a lesser number of teams. The tournament witnessed 13 matches with a margin of win over 100 runs and 7 of these involved a minnow. There were also 9 matches won by 7 or more wickets in hand and 5 of these involved a weak team.

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The Need For Expansion In a Global World

However, times have changed from 1992 to 2019 and due to the internet and technology revolution the world has truly become global. Thus, there has been pressure on cricket to expand to far-reaching lands instead of being an elite sport essentially played between 8-10 countries. This is one of the major objectives of the ICC Development program too – to take cricket to different countries and continents and make it a global sport – only then will it remain relevant for the generations to come.

While the 2019 World Cup was a major success in terms of viewership, competition and quality of cricket with the four best teams making the semi-final – India, Australia, New Zealand and England, there was lots of criticism of the format from the less elite cricket playing nations and some pundits and commentators. The view was that excellence was being achieved at the cost of growth and representation.

While the ICC has been stringent in awarding Test status only to the ‘really deserving’ member nations, the policy has, and rightly so, been more liberal in the T20 format which is the game’s best chance of taking the game to different corners of the world. From 16 teams in the World T20 in 2021 and 2022, the tournament will feature 20 teams from 2024.

The ODI format, lurking somewhere in the middle, has fluctuated between the debate of ‘expansion’ vs ‘quality’. It seems, at least for now, in the immediate future, that the ICC wants more member nations to take part even in the 50-over premier world tournament and thus have gone back to the format used in the 1999 and 2003 editions.

The Return of the Super Six

The 2027 and 2031 World Cups will feature 14 teams each divided into two groups of 7. The top three teams from each group will go into the ‘SUPER SIXES’ stage where they play the three teams from the other group. The top 4 from the Super Sixes then proceed to the semi-finals.

There are three major problems with this expanded format. Firstly, there are a number of one-sided contests in round 1 as both the groups will consist of three ‘weak’ teams.

Secondly, to give relevance to some of the group matches and to reward consistency, there is a ‘points carry forward’ system which makes matters a bit complicated. The 1999 and 2003 editions both had this system but with a slight contrast.

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In 1999 in England, only the points against the other two qualifying teams from the group were carried forward to the Super Sixes stage which seemed fair as it meant that you will get credit for wins against teams which have done well. However, the system was modified in the 2003 edition in South Africa in which points against non-qualifying teams were also considered, but with a lower weightage. It is still unclear what system will be followed in 2027 and 2031.

Last but not the least is the chance of a minnow squeezing past round 1 into the Super Sixes and then somehow, with some luck, making it to the semi-finals. This is exactly what happened with Kenya in 2003. Kenya won just one big match in round one defeating Sri Lanka. Their other wins were against Canada and Bangladesh. New Zealand forfeited their match after they refused to travel to Kenya due to security reasons. This gave Kenya four valuable points and they pipped hosts South Africa to make it to the Super Sixes stage.

Kenya lost to India and Australia in the Super Sixes Stage and just beat Zimbabwe but because they had carried forward points even from ‘inconsequential’ wins in round 1, they ended up as the number three team in the Super Sixes and made it to the semi-finals.

A lot of critics will ask – so what is the problem?

The problem is that Kenya were not deserving to make it to the semi-finals of the game’s flagship tournament and in turn there were a number of one-sided contests in the Super Sixes before a crushing defeat against India in the semi-final. It took away from the viewership and the high quality and competitive cricket one expects in the World Cup.

The problem with this format is precisely this. Firstly, one or two upsets or rain abandoned matches can help a ‘minnow’ make it to the Super Sixes stage and then the ‘points carry forward’ system may just help them to make it to the knockouts. This format does not necessarily ensure that the best four teams have made it to the semi-finals and that in itself is not worthy of being labelled a ‘good format’.

The least which the ICC should do is go back to the 1999 Super Sixes points system in which carry-forward points will be only from matches against those teams who have also qualified for the next round.

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There is no substitute for expansion and yes it also has to be done at the World Cup level but the ICC have to ensure that the quality of the competition is not sacrificed and non-deserving teams do not make it to the second round and knockouts. There is absolutely no problem if a Kenya or an Ireland consistently beats the top teams and then progress but the ‘luck’ factor due to unforeseen events, rain and a bad scoring system has to be reduced.

It will be interesting to see how the game’s parent body manages to maintain a fine balance between ‘Reach’ and ‘Quality’.

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