New covid cases drop past peak in most districts, some exceptions remain
Premium- In the past week, the new count of coronavirus cases in nine out of 10 districts was lower than their respective peaks during the second wave.
The all-India daily count of new reported coronavirus cases has dipped from a peak of about 414,000 on 6 May to about 134,000 as of Wednesday. However, this drop is not uniform across the country, and there exist pockets that have yet to see their peak, a district-wise analysis shows.
In the week to 2 June, about 92% of India’s districts reported fewer new cases than they did at their respective peaks of the second wave. The remaining 8% districts saw infections hit new highs in the past week, signalling that their peaks are not here yet. Tamil Nadu has eight such districts, while the seven north-eastern states have 41.
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The drop in new cases since the most recent peak exceeds 75% for nearly half of all districts, indicating a sharp improvement. For another 19% districts, the drop is 50-75%.
As expected, the longer it has been since the peak, the sharper the drop. Of the 319 districts that had their peak a month or more ago, new cases have shrunk more than 80% in 238. In Uttar Pradesh, all 75 districts showed such a sharp decline. State capital Lucknow is down from 40,146 new cases in the third week of April to 637 new cases.
Districts in Bihar and Jharkhand also dominate the list. But in all these three states, under-counting is said to be higher due to the rural burden. Other states where a large percentage of districts show a drop are Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Death flags
Amid the fall in new cases, deaths remain a concern. For instance, in spite of reporting an across-the-board drop in new cases, Uttar Pradesh saw an increase in the weekly toll in 25 of its 75 districts. Kushinagar reported 90 deaths, three times compared to a week ago. Similarly, more than half the districts in Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu reported more deaths.
However, there’s a glimmer of hope. At 22,748, the number of reported deaths in the past week fell marginally for the first time since mid-March. Seven of the 10 worst-affected states registered fewer deaths.
Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu reported the most—5,410 and 3,390 deaths, respectively. Jharkhand, Gujarat and Delhi reported sharp declines. Jharkhand reported 101 deaths, about one-fourth of what it reported two weeks back. At 172 and 707 deaths, respectively, the counts of Gujarat and Delhi were about one-third of two weeks ago.
Vaccine disparities
After a lull, the pace of vaccination in India picked up, but selectively. The daily average of 2.6 million doses in the past week was the highest since the third week of April. Kerala, for example, doubled doses. However, this increase was confined to select states, underscoring inherent supply constraints.
As many as 20 of the 36 states and union territories saw a drop in average daily doses administered on a week-on-week basis. Chhattisgarh saw the highest dip (-91%), followed by Punjab (-68%) and Bihar (-63%).
Although Himachal Pradesh’s pace dropped 34% the past week, it still leads on cumulative doses given adjusted for population. The hill state has given 333 doses per 1,000 people. It is followed by Delhi (294), Gujarat (274), Kerala (271) and Uttarakhand (262), all of which have been among the leaders since early-April. Uttar Pradesh (80) and Bihar (83) bring the rear and are the only states whose doses per 1,000 people remains below 100.
Chinese dominance
In the past week, China made significant gains in covid-19 vaccination, increasing its total dose count by 17%. China has administered 34% of all vaccine doses given worldwide. India remains in the third position on this metric (11%), behind the US. But in terms of per capita doses, India stands fifth among the top 10 most-populous countries, as per data portal Our World in Data.
With a weekly increase of 32%, Japan continues to register the fastest ramp-up in per capita doses administered. It matched its pace from a week ago, but this is slower than the 42% growth it managed two weeks back.
India accelerated its pace of vaccination, and increased its weekly growth from 5% to 7.4%. As a result, on weekly growth, it climbed from the ninth spot in this set to fifth.
In order to improve on this position, India needs more vaccine supply. At present, this is all in different pipelines.
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