More severe third wave of COVID on its way to India, vaccination may ensure lower mortality, claims SBI report

The third wave of COVID-19 could be as severe as the second wave, however, the number of covid-related deaths can be reduced by increasing vaccinations and improvement of health infrastructure, according to an SBI report.

In a five-page report, it pointed out that the average duration of the third wave for developed countries was 98 days as against 108 days in the second wave. If the country is better prepared for the third wave, “the decline in serious case rate (patients that require oxygen, intensive care unit beds, etc) will lead to fewer deaths," the SBI Ecowrap report said.

“We find that if serious cases decline from 20 percent to 5 percent (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in the third wave, the number of deaths in the third wave could significantly reduce to 40,000, as compared to the current deaths of more than 0.17 million."

The report also stressed on the importance of inoculating children who have emerged as the next vulnerable group during the second wave. It said, “With around 150-170 million children in the 12-18 age bracket, India should go for an advanced procurement strategy like that adopted by developed nations to inoculate this age-group."

India reported 1,32,788 new coronavirus infections taking the country’s tally to 2,83,07,832, while the daily positivity rate has further dropped to 6.57 per cent, according to the Union Health Ministry. There has been a continuous decrease in daily cases since India reported a peak on May 7 with an almost 69 per cent decline in COVID-19 cases since the highest peak. Also, there has been a consistent decline in active cases which presently stand at 18.95 lakh. A decrease in active cases by more than 18 lakhs since the peak on 10 May (a decline of almost 50 percent) has been observed.