Abundant Monsoon Rain Forecast Lifts India Farm Output Prospects

(Bloomberg) -- Indian farmers are expected to expand planting of major crops such as rice, corn and soybeans after the national weather forecaster predicted bountiful rains during the June-September monsoon season.

The India Meteorological Department maintained Tuesday its earlier forecast of a normal monsoon, which waters more than half of the country’s farmland. Cumulative rains are likely to be 101% of the long-term average during the four-month period, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the weather bureau, said at an online media briefing. That compared with its April prediction of 98%.

A normal monsoon season is critical for India’s crop output and economic growth at a time when the country is battling the world’s worst outbreak of Covid-19. The virus has spread to rural areas, where about 70% of the nation’s more than 1.3 billion people live. Agriculture accounts for almost a fifth of India’s economy, which contracted an unprecedented 7.3% in the year ended March.

About 60% to 90% of annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon period over different states. Farmers generally start planting of crops such as grains, cotton, soybeans, peanuts and sugarcane after the arrival of the monsoon. Any deficit in rains during the early part of the season could delay sowing and hit harvests, even if the monsoon gathers pace later.

Last year’s monsoon rainfall was 9% higher than normal, while it was 10% more than the average in 2019. Bountiful rains helped crops and boosted India’s food grain output to a record in 2020-21.

This year’s monsoon is expected to hit the southern state of Kerala on Thursday, according the weather office. It had earlier predicted an onset date of May 31 for the rainy season, which typically starts on June 1.

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