Aditi Tandon

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 27

The government on Thursday rejected as “baseless and outrageous” a New York Times report that, in a worst case scenario, estimates the Indian Covid toll at 42 lakh, 13.3 times the official toll of 3,15,235.

Member, Health, NITI Aayog, VK Paul said the projections of deaths from Covid by NYT had no basis and appeared to have been determined based on a virtual interaction with some experts.

“Five people sit together and do a virtual meeting and decide. Perhaps that is how they did this. We do not accept this. This is baseless and outrageous,” Paul said.

The NYT report presents three scenarios on Indian Covid deaths assuming in the best case that real infections are 15 times higher than reported infections which would mean 40 crore cases as against 2.7 crore officially reported. The publication assumes infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.15 pc (instead of India’s official IFR of 0.05 pc) which leads to 6 lakh deaths instead of 3 lakh reported in the country.

The second scenario assumes actual cases at 20 times the reported cases which means over 53 crore cases. This scenario assumes IFR of 0.30 pc which would mean 16 lakh deaths.

The worst case picture NYT projects puts Indian actual infections at 26 times (70 crore) the reported cases and 0.6 pc IFR which throws up 42 lakh deaths -- 13.3 times higher than official Covid toll of 315235 as of today.

“We reject the NYT report on Covid deaths in India: it is not backed by facts,” Health ministry spokesperson Lav Agarwal said.

Paul said question does not arise of Covid deaths being concealed in India.

“NYT report is based on assumption of some people. This should not have been published. We have a strong mortality tracking system which has stood the test of time. Indian sample registration system is respected the world over. Let that data come. Adjustments of late reporting can happen in a large country like ours. It is possible to have missed some deaths but NYT’s projections are outrageous,” Paul said.

He argued that actual infections could be higher than detected cases in any country.

“Possibly a larger universe has been infected. It can be argued that actual infections were higher but on what basis has NYT exaggerated India’s IFR from 0.05 pc to 0.3 pc, even 0.6 pc. NYT estimates are adhoc and without basis. Detected cases can be smaller than actual cases anywhere in the world. Take New York -- Officially reported cases last May were two lakh in New York but sero prevalence surveys showed 17 lakh infections. Likewise in India the December 2020 sero survey by ICMR showed 26 pc people had developed antibodies. Indian official case data could be smaller than that universe but did NYT use that same logic to calculate Covid deaths in New York City? No. New York City reported 16,000 deaths last May but IFR was not exaggerated to calculate Covid deaths there. So on what basis have distorted IFRs been used to calculate deaths in India,” Paul asked.

He said India’s IFR (deaths against total cases) is 0.05 pc but NYT has assumed this to be six times higher (0.3 pc), even 12 times higher (0.6 pc).

“This is where the flaw is. Our deaths are being reported through sample registration system. Late reporting is possible. On what basis has NYT pulled out new IFRs for India? If the same standards of exaggerated IFRs based on higher actual infections shown by sero surveys were applied to New York their IFR in May last was 0.97 pc and reported deaths were 16000. If I make this three times deaths rise to 50,000 and if I make them 12 times deaths are 1,75,000 but they don’t use these assumptions for themselves. Distorted estimates have been made for India,” said Paul.