Reopening U.K. Economy on June 21 Hangs ‘in the Balance’

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said it was “too early” to say whether England’s economy can fully reopen as planned on June 21, warning that the coronavirus variant first identified in India is spreading across Britain.

A formal assessment of data on cases and hospitalizations will be published before June 14, Hancock told MPs, and the lifting of remaining restrictions will only happen “if it’s safe.”

Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College London whose modeling was key to the first lockdown, told the BBC the unlocking was “in the balance” and data collected in the next two to three weeks was “critical”.

Rising cases

Covid-19 cases have increased in recent days, with 3,180 daily infections reported in the U.K. on Wednesday, and admissions to hospital also starting to rise. Ministers are hopeful that the vaccination program -- which has seen almost three quarters of U.K. adults receive at least one shot -- has severed the link between rising cases and deaths.

Separately, Hancock underlined that the vaccine was not 100% effective, saying that about one in 10 people hospitalized in Covid hot spot areas had been fully vaccinated.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains confident the reopening will go ahead. “As I’ve said many times, I don’t see anything currently in the data to suggest that we have to deviate from the road map,” he said in a pooled interview.

Johnson Faces Challenge to Authority After Cummings Salvo

Ferguson said it was always expected that relaxing rules on social distancing would lead to a surge in infections, but there were still questions over how much the variant was making it worse.

Britain “can’t cope” with a surge “being too large”, Ferguson told the BBC. “Step four is rather in the balance,” he said. “The data collected in the next two to three weeks will be critical.”

Step three of England’s road map on May 17 saw a wide relaxation of rules, with people allowed to meet indoors for the first time in months -- including inside pubs and restaurants -- but in groups of either two households or as many as six people.

Step four would see all legal limits on social contact lifted, with people allowed to meet up in bigger groups and large-scale events able to take place.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.