Could we see further situations like those in india, with cases rapidly spiking and health systems being overwhelmed? The short answer, sadly, is yes. The global vaccine rollout is progressing slowly, with most of the world still susceptible to COVID-19. These factors mean there's potential for further spikes like those seen in India. In terms of cases, laos, Timor, thailand, cambodia, fiji and mongolia are the countries where numbers have recently doubled in the shortest period of time. They're now experiencing outbreaks amid an inability to procure a large vaccine supply. Vaccine coverage therefore is low. thailand and vietnam have given a first dose to just 2 per cent and 1 per cent of their populations respectively.

Latin America continues to experience a huge burden of COVID-19 disease and so is also at risk. argentina, uruguay, costa rica and colombia are all still in the top 10 countries in terms of daily new confirmed cases per million people. belarus, azerbaijan or indeed russia may have much bigger burdens of COVID-19 than appears to be the case.