Unpredictable corona
- The People's Chronicle Editorial :: May 20, 2021 -

After over a year of detecting the first Covid-19 case, India continues to remain in the grip of the pandemic in-spite of imposing one of the most stringent nationwide lockdowns in the world to curb the spread of the virus in March last year.

The year 2020 saw normal life coming to a standstill with economies plummeting and people having to come to terms with the 'new normal' consequently compelling the government to gradually lift some of the curbs with an eye on putting economic activities back on track.

Months after opening up the economies and amid critical observation that the move to do away with the restrictive measures would endanger the public, the rate of infections dropped dramatically in the later part of year 2020 leading to a self-congratulatory note within the establishment.

However, the second wave of viral disease seeing India record highest number of daily cases and deaths in the world underscores the unpredictable nature of the new coronavirus.

As early as March 2020, Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy, a public health research organisation had also predicted that India was likely to see as many as between 12.5 crore to 24 crore of its people being infected with Covid-19.

However, the infections started decreasing after a peak in mid-September during which daily new cases averaged 60,000 and negated the estimation, albeit briefly, as the country's cumulative cases are currently over one crore in excess than predicted and the country is second only to the US in terms of both infections and fatalities.

Another glaring instance that the contagion remains unpredictable was the high hopes that hot summer temperatures and humid conditions would naturally tame the virus.

However, the ground reality is that the summer months provided no solace as maximum number of cases and deaths in India was recorded during the hotter months but dipped in the winter seasons.

Moreover, government authorities contended that India would be flattening its Covid-19 curve and by May 16, 2020 there would be zero new Covid-19 case contrary to which the country recorded 3970 additional cases exactly on the same day while on May 6 this year India's single day infection peaked with over 4.14 lakh cases.

In fact, after the total number of active cases in the country raced to 53,035 in May 2020, NITI Aayog member VK Paul even apologised for misconception on the matter and stated: "We showed you factual information and no claim was made. I apologise for the misconception and it was not what was meant to be conveyed."

It may also be recounted that when Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day complete lockdown last year, he had said "if we want to restrict the spread of Covid-19, we will have to break its chain of transmission and lockdown will help in doing so".

In-spite of the strict lockdown, India struggled to control the surging cases. States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh witnessed a surge in Covid-19 cases after the lockdown was lifted.

While the lockdown itself was heavily criticised for its lack of planning, migrant crisis and crippling economy, reason for the same strategy not adopted during the more virulent second wave remains unexplained.

Last year, some medical experts also claimed that the Indian immune system is better than the west and thus Indians will survive Covid-19 infection better.

However, the cumulative cases and deaths till date show that every prediction is just wild speculation.