Ludhiana: CMCH predicts 3rd wave in Oct-Nov, says 2nd wave peaked around May 15

LUDHIANA: As the number of daily cases is witnessing a drop in Ludhiana, an analysis by Christian Medical College and Hospital (CMCH) indicates that the district has crossed Covid peak around May 15 and cases are expected to come down drastically by June end subject to people following Covid norms.
The projections have been made by preventive and social medicine department of CMCH, said a doctor on conditions of anonymity. He added that projections are based on recent available data.
“After touching peak, the cases are declining now but the decrease is expected to be gradual. Systemic lockdown imposed by authorities helped in flattening the curve or cases wouldn’t have been checked. However, fall in cases will depend on people’s behaviour towards the pandemic and vaccination. If vaccination increases and people follow Covid-appropriate behaviour, including wearing of masks, maintaining social distancing and practice cough etiquettes, the active cases will fall substantially by June end,” said a doctor involved in the finding.
“A third wave is expected around October or November. It is expected that during the probable third wave, rural and young population are likely to get affected more. Children too can get the infection in such wave like it was seen when 11% cases comprised below 18-years-old age group when the schools were opened, which later dropped to less than 2% because of cases from other population.” He explained that a gap of six months is expected between two the waves, as the antibodies developed in those infected last for six months after which there are chances of people contracting the disease again.
The team also factored in unseasonal rains that has raised the risk of dengue in July. He added that both dengue and Covid can run together so the authorities need to keep that in mind.
“Normally, dengue season is around September, but due to unseasonal rains it may come early in July so both of them need to be managed simultaneously by the authorities,” said the doctor.
“Systemic lockdown did help in flatting of the curve and cases are dropping because of that. However, the authorities need to vaccinate as many people as possible and people also need to follow Covid norms,” said Dr Clarence Samuel, head of the preventive and social medicine department.