Covid positivity rate in Maharashtra dips to 10.6% from peak 29%; it’s under 5% in Mumbai

MUMBAI: Signs of the ebbing of the second Covid wave in Maharashtra are apparent as the positivity rate and the number of active cases—two indicators of the pandemic’s severity —have dropped by almost half in a month.
On Thursday, the daily positivity rate (percentage of people who test positive among those tested) in the state was 10.6%, the lowest in months. It was 9.3% in mid-February, when the second wave began, and rose to 29% on April 4. With the increase in testing, it has been steadily declining since.

In Mumbai, the daily positivity rate stood at 4.8% on Thursday, after hovering at a shade above 5% for a couple of days. WHO advises relaxing lockdown-like restrictions if the rate holds at 5% for 14 days. Officials are wary as the positivity rate in surrounding townships is still as high as 20%.
Maharashtra, which had 7 lakh active cases on April 21, reported 3.8 lakh active cases on Thursday. According to central health ministry officials on Thursday, 24 of the state’s 36 districts showed a dip in cases.Maharashtra added 29,911 new cases on Thursday after over 2.7 lakh tests conducted in the 24-hour period. The total caseload of the state stands at 54.9 lakh. Even with the dip in other indicators, the high addition of fatalities continues to remain a concern. Maharashtra added 738 deaths on Thursday, and also added 246 previous deaths taking the cumulative toll to 85,355.
The BMC Covid update on Thursday showed a marginal rise in cases --- 1,425 compared to 1,329 on Wednesday and 961 on Tuesday. The city registered 59 deaths, taking the toll to 14,468. While the total tally in Mumbai is 6.9 lakh, the doubling rate is 297 days and virus’s overall growth rate has been 0.23%.
Dr Pradeep Awate, who heads the epidemiology cell of the state public health department, said the positivity rate has been declining “quickly” in Maharashtra. “We prefer to check positivity rate over a week as daily rate could be affected by low testing numbers over the weekend. Having said, the positivity rate in the state is dropping fast. From 25.2% a month ago, we are down to 14% this week,” he said. He expects the steep decline to continue. “We are likely to drop to 8% in a week’s time and to the magical number of 5% by the month-end,” he added.
“Maharashtra is in a better place, positivity is down, daily cases are dropping sharply and there is no need to panic over availability of beds anymore,” said a senior health department official.
During the media briefing on Thursday, central health ministry officials showcased the drop in Maharashtra’s positivity rate over a month --- from 25.2% in the April 23-29 period to 23.8% in April 30-May 6, 21% in May 7-13 and 14% in May 14-20.
The sharpest drop between April 23-29 to May 14-20 was registered in Nagpur (33.4% to 12.9%), Thane (22% to 9.4%) and Pune (29.3% to 17.6%). Worryingly, the rate in Satara barely changed from 33.4% to 32.6% in this period. Even the four districts from Marathwada, Parbhani, Osmanabad, Hingoli and Beed, reported a positivity rate of 27-25% in the week between May 12-18.
In another positive sign, the state completed 50 lakh recoveries on Thursday and the rate of recovery soared to 91.5%.