The curious case of Odisha’s death data

Amid the raging second wave and vociferous discussions over lives claimed by the virus, Odisha presents a curious picture. The proclaimed case fatality rate (CFR) in the state is not only among the lowest in India, but more astoundingly, has gone down considerably from the first wave. Is it a medical miracle or a classic case of data management? Hovering around 0.4%, Odisha’s CFR is lower than almost all states barring Kerala or Mizoram. In the last fortnight, the state’s CFR averaged a mere 0.16%. The state reported its highest daily Covid fatality of 25 on Thursday. Before that, the maximum was 22 on three occasions. The total Covid deaths recorded in Odisha, currently, stand at 2,403, which include last year’s numbers too. In the second wave, the state has officially reported only 485 fatalities.

For a state that has been consistently reporting about 10,000 cases daily for a while, the CFR is too low to be true. States like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Punjab—with as many daily infections or lower—report much higher deaths, which suggests something is not right about the numbers dished out on a daily basis in Odisha. But the dead do not lie. The pyres raging in the funeral grounds day and night, the grieving families in the cremation grounds, they don’t lie either. Nor do crematorium staff, their bodies and minds exhausted and overwhelmed from watching the flames consume the deceased hour after hour. Across the state, as districts scramble for new cremation grounds to accommodate the mounting bodies, the government’s numbers make little sense. What does the under-reporting achieve? Nothing, because, eventually, it is all going to reflect in death certificates and Registrar General of India data. On the other hand, honesty helps. It builds confidence and trust among people that the government acknowledges their loss. It also aids the medical community, researchers and experts prepare a road map for a better strategy when the crisis comes calling next time. The raging pandemic has put governments not just through a gruelling test of ability but also one of character. It would pay to be transparent to the very people they serve.