Will it be ‘a nice summer’ in St. Clair County despite COVID-19? Health official says that’s up to you.

Local health officials aren’t sure how long it will be before the community faces another coronavirus surge — if at all.

And what Dr. Annette Mercatante called “the big confusion” surrounding where and when to wear a mask after state and federal guidelines were altered this month may be a big reason why.

As new COVID-19 cases continue to level off, the St. Clair County medical health officer said the mask debate happening locally is the same everywhere else. But in an interview Wednesday, she said they hoped a “stalling of vaccination” against the virus wouldn't unnecessarily put people at risk — even as the weather warms and people move outdoors, where it’s safer to gather.

According to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, those gathering outdoors generally don’t need to wear a mask regardless of vaccination status, while mask-wearing guidance persists for those in most situations if not fully immunized.

“I think what’s happening, though, is it’s being misinterpreted as masks are no longer needed,” Mercatante said. “The problem with that is masks are very much still needed in high-risk situations or even moderate-risk situations.

“So, if you're indoors and unvaccinated and going to be in a close group of people (whose) vaccination status is unknown, or they're not (vaccinated), it is strongly encouraged for you to still wear masks. And I think that's not how people are interpreting this.”

By Thursday, there were 18,197 total coronavirus cases in the county and 404 deaths, according to the county’s data dashboard.

That’s an increase of 251 more cases and 10 reported deaths in the previous week.

Currently, Mercatante said the county is at 20 to 30 new cases a day.

“That’s a lot of cases for our staff, quite honestly. It really is,” she said, referring to contact tracers following transmission after new COVID cases are reported. “We’ve actually added some temporary staff there. Their employment is coming to an end because they were there for clinics.

“It’ll be hard for us to keep up the pace of identifying high-risk, contagious situations and trying to do things that would reduce the spread of that virus in those situations at a rate that we have right now. So, it might be a nice summer, or it might not.”

Health department advises people to be careful, and ‘watch the data’

The virus' second of four surges in St. Clair County came last summer. And since, they’ve each set new records in the number of people testing positive — reaching hundreds of new cases a day by early April — as well as the number of those becoming hospitalized and dying.

With roughly 43% of the population vaccinated, Mercatante said that’s “probably not” at a level that’s “adequate for controlling the spread” of the virus moving forward.  

As the weather warmer, Mercatante and other officials said it’s positive that a lot more people will be outside. Still, it’s a balance, she said. If it becomes too hot, she said people may retreat indoors, where the risk of transmission is higher.

The health official said it will also depend on “how much trouble with the variants” the community runs into.

“So, I have concerns, and I'm supportive and hopeful at the same time,” Mercatante said. “And I think the only thing we could do, at this point, is encourage people to continue to behave in ways that limit transmission and watch the data.”

Contact Jackie Smith at jssmith@gannett.com. Follow her on Twitter @Jackie20Smith.