Japan Exports Surge as Global Trade Rebounds From Dismal 2020

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Japanese exports jumped again, climbing in April by more than a third from last year’s dismal level, as recovering global trade gave a needed boost to an economy that’s stalling at home amid new waves of the coronavirus.

Surging car and auto parts shipments helped power a 38% rise in Japan’s exports from a year earlier, according to figures Thursday from the finance ministry that beat all but one forecast from 26 surveyed analysts. The consensus was for a 30.8% gain.

Although the data give an inflated view of the strength of exports because they’re based on a comparison with 2020’s terrible figures, the report still shows trade bouncing back -- a major positive for the global economy and Japan. Shipments climbed almost 8% compared with 2019.

A separate report showed Japanese machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, gained in March from the prior month.

Key Insights

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“Looking ahead, we expect exports to come in above the pre-Covid level in May, supported by a recovery in European demand with progress on vaccinations. Shipments to the U.S. and China may increase at a slower pace.”

--Yuki Masujima, economist

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• Imports rose 12.8% from the previous year, compared with analysts forecasting a 9% increase.
• Shipments to the U.S. jumped 45.1%, while those to the EU climbed 39.6% and those to China gained 33.9%.
• The trade balance was 255.3 billion yen ($2.3 billion) in the black. Analysts had expected a surplus of 147.7 billion yen.
• Core machinary orders increased 3.7% in March versus the prior month, compared with a 5% rise forecast by analysts.

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