Low pressure area likely to form over Bay of Bengal, says IMD; sea surface temperature higher than normal

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that a low-pressure area is likely to form over the east-central Bay of Bengal, reports claimed, a day after Cyclone Tauktae left a trail of destruction along the western coast.

The weather department further predicted that the cyclone, if it forms, is likely to make landfall around 23 or 24 May. It has been named Yaas by Oman.

The sea surface temperature (SST) is at 31 degrees above the Bay of Bengal, around 1-2 degrees Celsius above average, making oceanic and atmospheric conditions favourable for cyclone storm development, Sunitha Devi, in charge of cyclones at the IMD told News18. “In our outlook on cyclogenesis also we have indicated that the low-pressure system can intensify. As soon as it comes in our forecast skill range we will mention it in our forecasts,” she added.

Madhavan Rajeevan, secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, was quoted as saying by The Times of India that the system may move towards Odisha and West Bengal, adding that a clearer picture could be understood “in a day or two”. He also said that if formed, the cyclone will not be as powerful as Tauktae.

However, Skymet Weather official Mahesh Palawat said models are indicating that the system is likely to move towards Myanmar and not the Indian coast, according to Hindustan Times.

The formation of the depression comes close on the heels of Cyclone Tauktae, which made landfall on the Gujarat coast on 17 May, with heavy rains and gusty winds in the state claiming at least 13 lives. The cyclone also wreaked havoc in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra, before weakening into a cyclonic storm.

The remnant of the system is likely to move towards western Uttar Pradesh and interact with the western disturbances to cause fairly widespread to heavy rainfall over north-west India on Wednesday and Thursday.