2nd Covid wave receding faster than it rose

Nagpur: Vidarbha’s fresh Covid-19 case cunt was under 5,000 for the first time in 62 days on May 17. This is no doubt a good news for the region. Better news is Covid curve is in exponential decay and is falling more rapidly than it rose. Keeping Covid appropriate behaviour going can end the wave in the region by this month-end, said experts.
The exponential growth phase of the second wave began in the first week of March in Vidarbha, which was earliest in India. Ascent from less than 5,000 cases to a peak of 17,019 cases took 41 days from March 11 to April 24. On the other hand, descent from the peak to less than 5,000 cases has taken only 23 days from April 24 to May 17. The has dissipated in about half the time it took to rise. It’s still plummeting rapidly.
“At this pace, the second wave will be over by May-last or June first week. But, many factors are still affecting it,” said epidemiologist Dr Anand Thatte.
According to him, rural spread, number of tests, pace of vaccination, and how the government will unlock the restrictions will decide how effectively the second wave peters out.
“Rural spread is visible now in Vidarbha and administration needs to cut the chain off at village level only. Test numbers must not go down. Vaccination must gain pace. Finally, how we behave after the proposed unlock in June will be the key,” said Dr Thatte.
Infectious disease specialist Dr Nitin Shinde said that some rise in cases is unavoidable after the government relaxes the restrictions. “There will be a small spike in number of cases after relaxation. It is time is to remain vigilant even after the wave subsides,” he said.
Sharp drop!
Ascent: From 4,924 to 17,019 | March 14 to April 24 | 41 days
Descent: From 17,019 peak to 4,795 | April 24 to May 17 | 23 Days
Endpoint: A sharp decline in new cases and then a long duration of a low number of cases every day will be the endpoint of this wave
Expected: Between May 30 and June 07
Conditions: Careful unlock policy keeping transmission chains off; check on rural spread; accelerating vaccination, and Covid appropriate behaviour by people