Covid in Scotland: Glasgow needs 'robust testing' to curb virus

Door-to-door testing is needed to prevent a further surge of Covid cases in Glasgow, according to a leading public health expert.

The latest published case rate is 58.3 per 100,000 - well above a key threshold for easing restrictions, though not as high as rates in Moray.

Reasons behind the city's "red flag" increase are not yet known.

However, Prof Linda Bauld said it was "extremely important" to identify the prevalence of the Indian variant.

On Wednesday Linda de Caestecker, director of public health at NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, said the south of the city appeared to be affected and there had been a "cluster of outbreaks" linked to household transmission.

Prof Bauld said the increase in cases appeared "mostly in younger people".

It comes as much of mainland Scotland is due to move into level two Covid restrictions on Monday, which will allow people to hug and visit other households indoors.

National clinical director Jason Leitch told the BBC on Wednesday that between 20 and 30 cases of the so-called Indian variant had been identified in Scotland.

Prof Bauld told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme that sources, including Cog UK - the UK's genomic sequencing consortium - suggest instances of this variant may be even higher.

She said: "I'm not going to speculate - genomic sequencing takes time but there is a suggestion this variant may be even more transmissible than the Kent variant.

"If that's the case then the test-and-protect response needs to be super robust and we need to identify where cases are.

"In other parts of the UK where we've seen these cases, surge testing is needed, that means not just asking people to turn up, it's going door-to-door.

"Our attention needs to be focused on that and when cases are identified how do we give maximum support to communities to successfully self isolate and stop those chains of transmission?"

The difference between Glasgow and Moray is that the clusters in Scotland's biggest city have been sourced to specific postcode areas and linked to household mixing.

In Moray it quickly became widespread community transmission hence the decision to remain in level 3 there.

The real test for public health teams in Glasgow will be the new Indian variant which is believed to be the source of the outbreak in the southside. It's known to be at least as transmissible as the UK variant, and it has also led to outbreaks in some parts of England.

I don't get the sense that officials in Glasgow are panicking but they are concerned. Expect to see enhanced efforts to get people tested even if they don't have symptoms and encouragement from community leaders to stick to the rules.

The context in which this is happening is also very different now. The success of the vaccine means that, so far, this outbreak has not led to a jump in hospital admissions. But it is early days and younger people in particular, who are more likely to become infected, still need get their jag.

The impact of the easing of restrictions tends to show up in the figures about a fortnight later because of the incubation period of Covid-19 which is five to six days on average but can be as long as 14.

Clackmannanshire has also seen rising Covid rates recently, currently just below the 50-case threshold, with provisional data from Public Health Scotland indicating the figure will rise further in the coming days.

Midlothian, currently with 36 cases per 100,000, is another local authority area where case rates appear to be on the rise.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already said the situation in Glasgow is being monitored "very closely".

She tweeted: "We are seeing an increase in cases in Glasgow just now and, amidst concern about the so-called Indian variant, we are monitoring it very closely."

Ms Sturgeon and other leading politicians have also issued words of caution this week around celebrations of Eid - one of the biggest holidays in the Muslim calendar.

While Prof Bauld said "questions will be asked" about the profile of cases in Glasgow, it was "perhaps premature" to enforce rules which would restrict the whole council area.

She said: "I think a localised approached - a really concentrated identification and support of cases - is the first step. What we don't want is spread beyond those areas, it is about stopping the chain of transmission.

"In the past we, perhaps, had not acted early enough to get on top of outbreaks - this is just a red flag that needs to be dealt with."