The 2022 Senate races that will determine control of the chamber

Alayna Treene
·1 min read

Data: Axios Research, Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

While Republicans are giddy about their chances for regaining the House next year, GOP prospects for taking the Senate remain more uncertain, data reviewed by Axios suggests.

By the numbers: At least five Republican senators are retiring after the midterms, and four of their seats are in battleground states. That makes a simple Republican-for-Republican election exchange all the more difficult.

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

  • All told, 20 Republican seats are among the one-third of the Senate up for reelection.

  • Meanwhile, none of the 14 Democratic senators up for reelection have announced retirement plans.

  • Four of their seats — in Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona and Nevada — are being targeted by the GOP.

How it works: Axios has used a headshot to chart every candidate whose state was decided in the 2020 presidential election by 15 points or less.

Like this article? Get more from Axios and subscribe to Axios Markets for free.

Recommended Stories

  • Biden must not 'underestimate' Trump's chances of winning in 2024, says White House chief of staff Ron Klain

    'I wouldn't want to estimate or underestimate Donald Trump as an opponent if he chooses to run,' said White House chief of staff Ron Klain.

  • How a Post-College Gap Year Set Me up for a Million-Dollar Retirement

    I funded my retirement with a gap year: 12 solid months without fine dining, socializing, or vacationing, during which I focused only on accumulating a solid base of retirement cash.

  • Florida families to get more school vouchers as DeSantis signs $200M choice expansion

    Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday signed into law a $200 million school choice plan that will pave the way for about 61,000 new students to become eligible for taxpayer-funded vouchers that will help families pay for private tuition and other education expenses.

  • America just entered a new era for renewable energy

    Over the last two decades, the US has seen incredible growth in renewable energy: Roughly a 12,000% increase in the installed capacity of solar panels and 4,800% for onshore wind turbines. As of 2020, the US was home to just 0.1% of global offshore wind, split between two tiny farms off the coasts of Virginia and Rhode Island, according to data from the Global Wind Energy Council, a trade group. On May 11, the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued a final approval for Vineyard Wind, an 800-megawatt, $2.8 billion joint venture between the US utility Avangrid, a subsidiary of Spanish renewable energy giant Iberdrola, and the Danish investment firm Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners that is scheduled to begin construction this year and send electrons to the New England grid by 2023.

  • Arizona Just Became the Latest State to Approve Mail Voting Restrictions. Here’s What to Know

    Arizona’s governor signed a bill Tuesday that could take more than 100,000 infrequent mail voters off a voting list that automatically delivers ballots by mail to voters

  • Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy to announce Senate challenge to Marco Rubio

    Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy is planning to announce a campaign for the U.S. Senate in Florida against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in early June, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.Why it matters: Murphy is a proven fundraiser. Jumping in now would give her an early start to build her case for the Democratic nomination and potentially force Rubio and allied GOP groups to spend heavily to retain a seat in a state that’s trending Republican.Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for freePresident Trump won Florida by more than 3 percentage points in 2020, up from a narrow one-point margin in 2016. He did so, in part, by accusing Democrats of being soft on socialism.Murphy, who fled Communist Vietnam as a child, calls herself a “proud capitalist” and has warned Democrats about embracing socialism. She knocked off a longtime GOP House incumbent in 2016 at age 38.Murphy has been on a “listening tour” across the state as she explains her life journey.“Rep. Murphy has not made a decision on whether to run for the U.S. Senate,” said Lauren Calmet, a campaign spokesperson.Between the lines: With Murphy working to appeal to Florida voters statewide, she may be less inclined to support President Biden’s proposed tax increases on corporations and capital gains — making House passage more difficult.Biden won her Orlando-area district by about 10 points in 2020, and while the lines may be redrawn this year through congressional redistricting, the general area leans Democratic.The big picture: Eighteen months before the election, both parties are looking for candidates who can appeal to swing voters in an unknown campaign climate.The atmospherics for the midterm races will hang on everything from Biden’s approval ratings to the level of Donald Trump’s determination to re-litigate the 2020 presidential election.While the Senate is tied at 50-50, Republicans are defending more seats than Democrats, giving Democrats an opportunity to increase their majority — a rarity for the party controlling the presidency at the midterms.In the House, the Democrat's five-seat margin could be more difficult to maintain, especially with redistricting giving Republican-leaning states additional seats.An Axios chart visualizes the dynamic. Florida will be center stage in 2022 and a petri dish of presidential ambitions.Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is also up for reelection, with Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist already announcing a challenge and Rep. Val Demings mulling her own.While Rubio ran for president in 2016, DeSantis could make his own bid for the White House in 2024, assuming he wins reelection.Florida Sen. Rick Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, also has hinted at presidential aspirations.The bottom line: In 2022, Florida may be less of a battleground and more of a proving ground for Democratic strategies about how to win Trump supporters.More from Axios: Sign up to get the latest market trends with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

  • Biden administration says no need to hoard gasoline after Colonial Pipeline attack, sees ‘supply crunch’ not a shortage

    The Biden administration on Tuesday says hoarding gasoline isn't necessary and warns gas stations against price gouging, as officials work to respond to the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack that has led some stations in the Southeast to run out of fuel.

  • Mexico says U.S. to share AstraZeneca vaccine after testing

    MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told his government the United States was willing to send AstraZeneca vaccines it was not using to other countries once they have been tested. Millions of doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine manufactured at a U.S. plant that had a contamination issue that were previously shipped to Mexico were deemed safe and approved by two regulators, Mexico's deputy health minister said last month.

  • Florida court rules against Black mother arrested for filming police detaining her son

    ‘She obstructed their investigation and processing of her son’s detention,’ writes 4th District Court of Appeals

  • Ted Cruz appears to leave hearing after getting called out for ‘complete distortion’ of facts

    Democrats calls out Cruz for misstating the facts

  • U.S. approves major offshore wind farm, launching industry to fight climate change

    (Reuters) -The Biden administration on Tuesday said it has approved the nation's first major offshore wind farm, billing it as the launch of a new domestic energy industry that will help eliminate emissions from the power sector. The announcement fits neatly with U.S. President Joe Biden's broader agenda to combat global climate change by decarbonizing the nation's economy. The move, however, was quickly condemned by the fishing industry which said its concerns about the project's impact fish stocks and vessel traffic had been "met with silence" by government officials.

  • Matt Damon on possible Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez romance: 'I hope it's true'

    "That would be awesome," Damon said about the former couple possibly dating again.

  • Loyalty to Trump catapults Elise Stefanik into Republican stardom

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik's first turn in the national limelight came when she mounted an impassioned defense of Donald Trump at his first impeachment trial in 2019, leading the then-president to declare that "a star is born." Stefanik's star could rise higher as Trump now pushes for her to be elected the No. 3 Republican in the House of Representatives, where her colleagues are set to vote on Wednesday to remove Representative Liz Cheney https://www.reuters.com/world/us/top-us-house-republican-sets-wednesday-vote-cheney-ouster-2021-05-10 from that role for rejecting his continued false claims that the 2020 presidential election was marred by widespread fraud. It is a profound change for Stefanik, a New York state Republican first elected in 2014 on a moderate platform, who avoided saying Trump's name publicly during the 2016 campaign season and did not vote for him in that year's Republican presidential primary.

  • Breaking down the closest Norris Trophy race in recent memory

    The 2021 Norris Trophy race should be the closest among the major awards, with several candidates in the running. Who should take home the hardware this year?

  • Tennessee soldiers ran illegal gun pipeline tied to Chicago mass shooting, feds say

    “They want a lot of guns,” one soldier reportedly said in a text message to his roommate.

  • Bob Dylan artwork to go on display in the U.S. this year

    The largest collection of Bob Dylan’s artwork ever seen will go on display later this year in the U.S. “Retrospectrum” spans six decades of Dylan’s art, featuring more than 120 of the artist’s paintings, drawings and sculptures. Building on the original “Retrospectrum” exhibition that premiered in Shanghai, China, in 2019, the new version will include new, never-before-seen pieces and additional artworks from a brand-new series called “American Pastoral.”

  • As India halts vaccine exports, Nepal faces its own Covid crisis

    The landlocked country, which relies on India for medical supplies, is seeing a dramatic rise in cases.

  • Florida and Virginia governors declare state of emergency over growing gas shortage

    Florida's gasoline supply is mostly unaffected by the hack, but an uptick in panic buying has led to local shortages, according to the Tallahassee Democrat.

  • Scaly hitchhiker sneaks in SC woman’s truck hood. Watch it slither out during commute

    “I knew nobody was going to believe that had happened.”

  • McDonald’s worker shoots customer after dispute over change, Arkansas cops say

    The incident is under investigation, police say.