Hyderabad: The Indian summer monsoon (the southwestern monsoon) is likely to depart over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20 ° N, 80 ° E) in the last week of June between 21 and 29 June 2021. Monsoon isolated rainfall may occur during the period 14 -17 June. The continued rainfall is expected to start from June 29, according to the forecast for the monsoon of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
The region of our forecast is in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EC), namely in the southeastern part of the state of Maharashtra, and the western part of the state of Chhattisgarh, and the northern part of the state Telangana (the geographical point (20 ° N, 80 ° E) surrounded by the square of 2,5 ° x2,5 ° with an area of about 77000 km²).
The Indian summer monsoon (the southwestern monsoon) is likely to lie over northern Telangana (17.5 ° N, 80 ° E) between 24 June and 2 July 2021. Premature isolated rainfall can occur in the period 12-19 June. The persistent rainfall is expected after 2 July.
The forecast area is in Telangana State (17.5 ° N, 80 ° E), namely in the east of Hyderabad, south-east of Warangal, west of the Godavari River and north of Khammam.
Delhi has to wait longer for the arrival of the monsoon
The southwest monsoon is likely to reach the Delhi region (27.5 ° N, 77.5 ° E) during 11-19 July 2021. Pre-monsoon isolated rainfall is possible two weeks before the monsoon rains between 28 June and 5 July with a subsequent dry period. After July 19, continuous rainfall is expected in the region.
Why is the start of the monsoon being delayed this year?
During April 2021, the anticyclones were predominant in Western Siberia, leading to higher than average temperatures for the period 1991-2020. Outbreaks of polar air westward from this high pressure area caused the negative temperature deviation in the large area from Iceland to the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Air temperatures were below average in Eastern Siberia, China, and most tropical and subtropical Eastern Pacific Oceans. In northern Pakistan, northern and central India, it was specifically about 3-4 ° C lower than average. I expect this temperature trend to continue during the beginning of the monsoon. If this is the case, it disorganizes the onset of the monsoon, alternating premature rainfall and dry time leading to the transition to the monsoon longer and delayed onset of the monsoon.
Source: Telangana Today