Covid in Scotland: FM expected to ease rules on indoor visits

Nicola Sturgeon is expected to confirm on Tuesday that Covid rules will be relaxed further next week.

She is likely to say that people will be allowed to meet in each other's homes in limited numbers from Monday as most of Scotland moves to level two.

Deputy First Minister John Swinney hinted at a "good news" announcement as Covid cases generally continue to fall.

However concerns remain about Moray where infection rates are five times the Scotland-wide level.

Scotland's national clinical director Prof Jason Leitch told BBC Scotland's The Nine there were a "few cases of the so-called Indian variant" in the region.

But it was principally the Kent variant which was being transmitted, he added.

The Scottish government official said about 30 to 40% of those being diagnosed in the area were asymptomatic.

It means level three restrictions could remain in place in Moray on Monday.

The first minister is due to outline the latest changes at a Covid briefing at 12:15.

Ms Sturgeon is expected to say that four people from two households will be able to meet indoors from 17 May.

Cinemas, bingo halls and amusement arcades are also likely to be able to reopen, and outdoor and indoor events like concerts could restart, although capacity may be limited initially.

Restrictions on meeting up outdoors will ease further and adult outdoor contact sports and indoor group exercises will be able to resume.

BBC Scotland understands that a "traffic light" system for foreign travel will also be introduced.

When the Scotland-wide indoor visiting ban came into force in September, infection rates, deaths and hospital admissions were all rising, but the picture is very different now.

Here are five figures which indicate the state of the pandemic in Scotland.

The emergence of the Kent Covid variant in the weeks before Christmas drove a massive spike in cases in Scotland.

At the beginning of the year, the number of weekly cases per 100,000 people in Scotland almost reached 300, triggering a full lockdown which lasted almost four months.

Cases have mainly been falling since January, although there was a small rise in mid-March after Scotland's pupils returned to classrooms.

However, the the decline has been flattening and has actually begun to increase in recent days.

On Monday, the rate was 24 weekly cases per 100,000 people in Scotland - the fifth day in a row the rate has risen - and is perhaps a consequence of the gradual easing in restrictions seen since Easter.

Despite the recent increase, Scotland is still categorised as having a "moderate" level of community transmission, using a World Health Organization (WHO) system for measuring infection levels.

Looking at a local authority breakdown of case rates across Scotland, there is one stand out exception.

Infection levels have been rising in Moray since the beginning of April and the rate was almost 94 cases per 100,000 on 7 May - well above the 50-case threshold for level three.

The area has seen relatively low levels of Covid throughout most of the pandemic, but the rate in Moray is now more than four times the Scotland-wide rate.

Health officials have said the area is experiencing "uncontrolled, sustained community transmission" of the virus and it is not yet clear if the outbreak has peaked.

Linda Bauld, professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh, told BBC Scotland there was a "real risk" Moray could miss out on the level two easing next week.

"This is not a specific outbreak, as in a factory or another workplace. It is community transmission," she said.

"The R [number] is about 1.8, so people will recognise that means if you've got 10 people who are infected they could potentially pass it on to 18. That's very serious."

As of 7 May, there were 12 local authorities with infection rates above the Scotland-wide level, but only Moray is above the level three threshold.

The Scottish government also takes into account other measures, like pressure on local health services, when deciding the local authority levels.

Looking at Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test, the number of new deaths is at a similar level to where it was at the end of the summer.

Only one death has been registered since the beginning of the month, giving Scotland a Covid death rate of just 0.018 deaths per 100,000 - effectively 0.0 if you're rounding to one decimal place, as is commonly done.

This rate has come down from a peak of eight weekly deaths per 100,000 in January as the Kent variant was spreading rapidly among the population.

A total of 7,661 people have died in Scotland following a positive test for Covid-19.

However, if you count all death certificates that mention Covid-19, the death toll is 10,097, according to the National Records of Scotland.

The Scottish government says this sustained decline in the death rate has been achieved through a combination of people sticking to lockdown rules, and the vaccination of those most vulnerable to becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19.

According to the WHO thresholds, the death rate in Scotland indicates "low" levels of community transmission.

In the week up to 28 April - the most recent figures available from Public Health Scotland - 62 people were admitted to Scottish hospitals for Covid treatment.

The last time the figure was this low was 9 September, two weeks before the household mixing ban was brought in, but then the trajectory was very much up rather than the sustained decline seen now.

The number of weekly admissions never reached zero over the summer, but did get down to eight in mid-July before beginning to rise again.

The rate of admissions per 100,000 is currently 1.1, giving Scotland a low level of community transmission according to the WHO thresholds.

According to Scottish government figures, close to three million people had received a first dose of a Covid vaccine by 9 May - almost 63% of the total population aged 16 or over.

About 1.5 million people are now fully vaccinated having received both doses of a vaccine.

It's clear from the chart below that there's been a big push on second doses in recent weeks, completing the vaccination of the many thousands who were given a first dose in February.

However, the daily number of first doses being administered appears to be on the rise again.

The Scottish government also says that everyone in the nine priority groups, as set out by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, has now been offered a vaccine.

Vaccination targets in the 60-64, 70-74 and 75-79 age groups have been met and are close to completion in the 55-59, 65-69 and 85-plus age groups.

People in their 40s should now be receiving their vaccination invitations in the post. The Scottish government is aiming to offer a vaccine to everyone aged 16 or over by the end of July.

The WHO outlines five "situational levels" ranging from level zero, when there should be "no restrictions" on daily activities, up to level four which requires a full lockdown to tackle an "uncontrolled epidemic".

Using measures like Covid deaths, cases and hospital admissions, the WHO system indicates that Scotland is currently sitting firmly in level one.

It's where the organisation recommends that "basic measures" should remain in place to prevent Covid infections spreading, but any disruptions to social and economic life should be "limited and transient".

There are a couple of important caveats to note about the WHO guidelines, which were published in November.

Firstly, they were written before vaccines were approved for use and so do not take into account a country's vaccination programme.

Secondly, the advice also came out before the widespread emergence of new strains of Covid-19, which can be more transmissible and in some cases more deadly too.