Third wave of Covid may hit Bihar after 2-3 months: Experts

PATNA: Even as Bihar is yet to attain the peak of the second wave of Covid 19, health experts have already started talking about the feasibility of a third wave. With the continuing sharp rise in the number of Covid cases, the third wave may hit the state after two to three months, they claim.
Last time, the second wave hit different states almost six months after the decline of the first wave. But taking into account the severity of infection this time, the third wave may hit the state earlier.
Patna University (PU) professor of biotechnology, Birendra Prasad, said the arrival of the third wave will depend upon the strength of the new Covid-19 strain owing to change in its DNA in the time to come. The recently developed mutants of the virus are supposedly more infectious than the first one. It is not known how strong the new strains in the third wave will be, he said.
Prasad said the new variants of the virus would hit the state after two to three months after the infections in the ongoing second wave start showing a downward trend. But the new wave is not likely to be more dangerous than the current one owing to development of herd immunity during the intervening period. The new variants would be even more ineffective if a majority of the people were vaccinated by then, he added.
Noted physician and epidemiologist Dr Arun Shah asserted that given the huge population getting infected with the virus, the third wave of Covid infections is inevitable. And, most likely it would hit the state in August, he said.
Dr Shah pointed out that there is no uniform pattern of Covid infection reaching its peak in the country. The second wave hit some states early, but it touched other states quite late. Consequently, the peaks of infections were also witnessed at different times in different states. As the second wave hit Bihar relatively late, it is taking longer time to reach the peak. He cautioned that the third wave is likely to be more infectious for the children and, hence, efforts should be made to protect them from exposure to the new variants. In the meantime all adults should be vaccinated by pooling all resources from all over the world. Only vaccination can bring down the rising graph of infections and check the mortality rate in the state, he added.
Acting state president of Indian Medical Association (IMA), Dr Ajay Kumar, however, observed that no accurate prediction can be made about the third wave of infections. Everything will depend on the intensity and virulence of the new strains which may be of greater strength. He said the Covid infections would subside only when at least 60 to 70 percent of the entire population in the world get vaccinated with double doses. And sooner the world strives for it, the better for mankind, he added.
Former chief medical officer of PU Central Dispensary, Dr Prabhakar Devraj, said it is really very difficult to predict the exact time of the third wave. “Instead of waiting for the onset of the new wave, we should try to equip ourselves with all the necessary infrastructure needed for better health services. Ailing people should get the required medical facilities and the government should also strive hard to get the maximum number of people vaccinated at the earliest, he added.