A lot has been written lately about the dominance of Irish-trained horses on both sides of the Irish Sea, and following the demolition job at Cheltenham, that supremacy continued on the flat last weekend with the first two British Classics going to Ireland.
To highlight the recent state of play, it’s worth looking at the entire year of 2020 where Irish trainers sent a total of 595 horses to Britain to compete in national hunt, flat and all-weather races. Ninety of those horses won, a strike-rate of over 15pc, and they actually proved profitable to follow if blindly backed with a return of 23pts to a 1pt level stake at SP.
Around 34pc of those horses were placed, so with those type of figures in mind I really hope I’m not making a mistake in opposing Aidan O’Brien’s duo in the Listed Novibet Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield this afternoon (2.50), in favour of the Charlie Appleby-trained Adayar, which was trading at 11/10 yesterday evening.
O’Brien sends Kyprios and Carlisle Bay, the former a recent winner at Cork and the latter a third-place finisher in a Group Three at Leopardstown in October.
It almost goes without saying about any O’Brien horses that they look open to improvement, but the same can definitely be said of Adayar, which shaped really well when runner-up in the Group Three Classic Trial at Sandown last time out.
That followed on from a maiden success in October at Nottingham, and as a son of Frankel, he’s well-bred. Currently 12/1 for the Epsom Derby, I reckon he’ll be an interesting one to follow.
I’m also opposing O’Brien’s Divinely in the Listed Novibet Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (2.15 Lingfield) with Technique the one they have to beat around 9/4.
Trained by Martyn Meade, the daughter of Mastercraftsman hit 1/5 in-running on Betfair in a Listed race at Epsom recently before finishing second to Appleby’s Wirko. It left the impression she’s got a win in her at this level at the least, and I reckon she’ll appreciate the step up in trip today.
That said, Divinely is definitely respected having won a Group Three back in August, although she was quite disappointing when finishing eighth of 13 in a Group One in September, albeit unfancied in the market on that occasion at 40/1.
Appleby’s Nash Nasha is another one worth a mention with a couple of minor wins to her credit.
Also at Lingfield, we’ve Group Three action in the Novibet Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (3.25), and I’m happy to side with Andrew Balding’s Bounce The Blues under Oisin Murphy, expected to go off at 11/4 or thereabouts.
A Listed winner in August, she looked in need of the run when finishing mid-division in a Listed race at Doncaster in March, and I don’t think she’s shown her true potential just yet.
Chris Wall’s Double Or Bubble will probably go off as favourite and has claims based on a recent handicap win, but this looks competitive and early odds of 5/2 are on the short side.
We have Grade Three racing over jumps at Haydock (3.10) where Copperless is tipped around 5/1 in the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle for Olly Murphy under jockey Aidan Coleman.
A handicap winner off 117 in March, he’s rated 126 for today which is 3lbs higher than his latest race at Aintree where he fell two out, having looked likely to be fighting out the finish.
With two wins in four hurdle races so far, he remains unexposed and I reckon he’s got a bit more to go before the handicapper gets a handle on him.
The biggest threat to the bet comes from Camprond, which went very close in second in that same race where the selection fell.