Telangana’s Covid curve to flatten from June 21: IIT model

HYDERABAD: The Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed (Sutra) mathematical model for tracking the trajectory of Covid-19 infection has predicted that Telangana will peak around May 12, reaching a daily case mark of around 9,000 to 9,500 cases. As per the model, the state will start seeing a flattening of the curve from around June 21 while the peak will continue from around May 12 to May 20.
“Telangana is more or less moving as per the projected trajectory,” said IIT Kanpur’s Professor Manidra Agarwal who shared the computational model. The model predicts that case load in Telangana will start coming down from May 20. The fall of cases, as per the model, will not be drastic and will take almost a month before the curve starts flattening, from around June 21.
The team of professors from IIT Kanpur and Hyderabad have made these predictions as per the revised estimated for states in the past few days. Interestingly, Telangana has already touched the 10,000 daily cases mark — 10,122 last Monday which was the highest single-day surge since the pandemic outbreak. The number was higher than the predicted peak for Telangana.
However, after touching the 10,000 mark, the daily case numbers in the state have been around the 6,500 to 8,000 cases-mark. The daily case load in the first week of this month is corresponding with the number given by the state health department. As per the numbers given by the health department, Mulugu has the distinction of reporting the lowest number of Covid-19 cases in the entire state during the second wave. The district only reported 21 cases on May 2.
Apart from Mulugu, 17 other districts have reported below 100 Covid-19 cases per day this week. These include Narayanpet, Medak, Nirmal, Jangaon, Jayashankar Bhupalpally, Kumaram Bheem Asifabad and Jogulamba Gadwal, giving an indication that the caseload is dipping in some parts of the state.Mulugu has not only reported the lowest number of daily cases in a single day, but has consistently had a daily case count of below 50.