The Central government’s experts on Covid-19 has predicted that India could see the peak of the second wave of coronavirus cases by May 7. If the predictions hold true, it would be a huge relief for the country to cross the national peak of the second wave by this weekend.
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What Professor Vidyasagar has predicted about Covid-19 cases?
A member of the Mathematical modelling experts team on Covid-19 cases, Professor M Vidyasagar suggested that Covid-19 infection cases should start declining by the end of this week but different states will peak at different times.
Speaking about the situation in various states and the trend therein, Prof Vidyasagar explained that different states would attain their peak at different times, and see a decline in their cases, as is currently being seen in the case of Maharashtra.
Centre’s top mathematician said that the second wave basically started in Maharashtra and the states located far away from Maharashtra will see a slow peak while the states closer to Maharashtra will attain their peaks soon and their graph will start declining sooner.
Maximum by another 10-15 days, the team expect every Indian state to peak and begin a downturn. There could be outliers as well but by and large, that is what the team expect.
Asked if there could be states that would reach their peaks after May, Prof Vidyasagar said that’s unlikely.
How long will Covid second wave take to end after it’s peak?
Professor Vidyasagar said if one compares curves of the first and second wave, one would find that in the first wave the rise in cases was very gentle. He said it took about 3.5 months to reach the peak and the drop was equally gentle. In the second wave, on April 1 India had 75,000 cases and exactly a month later, India breached the 4-lakh mark. Indians were expected that the decline will be more or less as rapid as the rise was. He has also clarified that India is not going to see zero cases that’s something that is not going to happen.
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What are the predictions on Covid third wave?
While India is still grappling with the second Covid-19 wave, there have been concerns about the possibility of a third wave hitting the country. Prof Vidyasagar said even though in the second wave a large number of people tested positive for Covid-19, there could be those who were infected and were asymptomatic, but have not been tested.