Madrid Voters Set to Hand Victory to Sanchez’s Biggest Rival

(Bloomberg) -- Isabel Diaz Ayuso, Madrid’s combative conservative leader, is set to win a second term as regional president, strengthening her position as one of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s biggest critics.

With 75% of votes counted, Ayuso’s People’s Party was set to claim 64 seats, more than doubling its representation in the regional assembly, with Sanchez’s Socialists getting 25. The Socialists are set to decline after winning 37 lawmakers in 2019 while Ciudadanos, Ayuso’s center-right rival and former coalition partner, is set to be wiped out.

Since being plucked from relative obscurity to run Spain’s most important region, Ayuso has won popularity with her unapologetically hardline rhetoric, by consistently attacking Sanchez and by challenging the European consensus on restrictions to movement and economic activity during the pandemic.

Amid the resurgence in Spanish nationalism that followed Catalonia’s failed bid for independence, Ayuso has captured the imagination of one half of a divided society as a counterpoint to Sanchez. Where the prime minister has earned brickbats from many conservatives for his willingness to cut deals with Catalan separatists, Ayuso has taken a big step toward reuniting the fragmented right-wing vote.

Read More: The Rage Against Pedro Sanchez Is Tearing Spain Apart

“Freedom has won, once again, in Madrid,” Diaz Ayuso said, speaking from a balcony at her party’s headquarters to scores of supporters. “A new chapter starts today in the history of Spain.”

Ciudadanos has split the conservative electorate since its emergence as a political force in 2015 and its elimination from the regional assembly could signal a broader shift that would make the PP a more serious threat to Sanchez at a national level.

The left-wing group Mas Madrid is set to finish third with 24 seats compared with 20 last time, while the far-right group Vox will be little changed with 13, one more. The far-left group Unidas Podemos is set for 10, three more than in 2019. While the results don’t grant Diaz Ayuso a majority, she could form a government with support from Vox.

Vox’s leader, Santiago Abascal, congratulated Diaz Ayuso “for her great” result while celebrating what he defined as a big defeat for Sanchez.

The result will also bolster Ayuso within her own party, where other regional leaders have at times been uneasy about her brash positions and her flirtation with Vox.

While Ayuso has eclipsed the PP’s national leader, Pablo Casado, it’s still difficult to see her replacing him at the head of the party so that she can take on Sanchez directly. The fiery rhetoric that plays well in the capital goes down badly in other parts of the country, especially in Catalonia.

Read More: How a Jailed Catalan Separatist Is Now Key to Spain’s Future

Ayuso’s predecessor as Madrid president, Esperanza Aguirre, tried and failed to make the jump to PP leader more than a decade ago.

As Spain was battered by the coronavirus, Ayuso and Sanchez clashed over how best to tackle the infections. The prime minister was pushing for firmer restrictions on activity whereas Ayuso, taking advantage of Spain’s devolved structure, insisted on keeping hospitality and shops open, despite the capital suffering the worst death toll of any city in Europe. Voters repaid her commitment to keeping the economy afloat.

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