Vibha Sharma

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 2

Registering a convincing return in Assam, taking some of the sheen off incumbent West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s spectacular victory and making inroads into uncharted space, Puducherry, it has not been such a bad day for the Bharatiya Janata Party. 

The saffron party also has a lot to cheer about the fact that the NDA, led by ally AIADMK, gave rival DMK-led coalition a reasonable fight in Tamil Nadu, which, many felt, was completely headed one way. It also registered more than 2,000 per cent increase (BJP had won just three seats in the 2016 assembly elections) in number of seats in Bengal, a no small feat by any means. However, this was not good enough for the BJP to get the state its top leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and president JP Nadda, had been vying for five years now.

The spectacular victory of Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee against the mighty election machinery of the BJP has given its rivals a new hope to take on Prime Minister Modi, who enjoys the TINA (there is no alternative) factor when it comes to winning elections. It may have also given the saffron party many points to ponder. The larger message for the BJP from West Bengal, and Kerala, may be that creating ‘hawa’ and smart IT/social media management may not be a recipe to success against a strong regional satrap. 

While Prime Minister Modi continues to be its strongest, most popular leader at the national level, when it comes to states the lack of strong regional leadership is showing.  West Bengal and Kerala have both demonstrated the importance of a strong regional leader and that national and state elections are fought on different planks and ideas. In the state where the BJP had strong regional leadership, like Assam, it had returned.

“The BJP’s lack of regional leadership in West Bengal is visible, its sitting MPs have lost. The fact is people vote differently in central and state elections. No doubt, it made an impact, emerging as an alternative to the TMC, but that has been at the cost of the Left and the Congress. Polarisation also has its limits. It is not as if all Hindu votes will be consolidated in its favour, this the BJP should understand. It needs to rework this part of the strategy,” say political observers.

Meanwhile, pointing that the party has registered “more victories than losses” under the leadership of PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP leaders say they gave Bengal all they had “but these elections have demonstrated a scenario where anti-BJP votes were consolidated”. “We will do a thorough analysis of results. We are the biggest challenger at the national and a major regional force but that does not mean we will win all elections. The aim should be to give a good fight, which we did in Bengal and Kerala,” BJP leaders say, also dismissing the observation that results may be a reflection on either Centre’s Covid management or the farmers’ agitation against the three laws.  

The “thorough analysis” will come useful for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, the next big one in line and where minority votes matter, along with Gujarat. The year 2022 will also see Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur voting to elect fresh assemblies.