Department of Science & Technology secretary Ashutosh Sharma spoke to ET on the second wave of the pandemic, the new strains of the coronavirus, the lessons before us and the role of elections and Kumbh in spreading the infection. Excerpts:
On second wave alerts
Our own modelling studies and various other studies, none of them predicted the scale, intensity and the ferocity that we see now. The country was prepared for a surge of less than a lakh per day as a lot of resources were built in the first wave for it.
The (Covid-19 supermodel) committee gave an informal alert in March and held its last meeting with (Niti Aayog member-health) Dr VK Paul on April 2 where the prediction was of India hitting the peak in the third-fourth week of April with an intensity of less than a lakh per day. Clearly what was predicted was far short of the reality, probably because inputs to the model changed — mutations in the virus which probably required less loading for the disease to take hold.
I say clearly that there was no other input, and not one of them, that was an alarming input, as far as science is concerned.
On the role of elections and Kumbh
Election rallies and others may have contributed a small fraction but please look at the totality and context of the overall behaviour seen in the country, even among enlightened sections of people. It had become pervasive.
On messaging on Covid safety
I don’t think one can fault the messaging. The messaging was always there. Mathematical models also clearly and emphatically said that the behaviour of the virus was linked to that of the people. It is a difficult situation, we cannot just be blaming each other. The important thing is to take charge of the situation and follow some simple things like masking as well as one can and ensuring adequate ventilation to check the spread of infection.
On the virus
While scientific studies are still on, the strains look more infective. It is argued that the transmission is happening through aerosol. It is still under study how much viral load is leading to the onset of disease.
Comparatively, a small fraction is showing severe symptoms but it is not clear how that selection happens. Comorbidity and obesity are indicators. So was age but now it is shifting to a younger population that was not infected before — like fire to fuel. Several ongoing global studies and at our labs will give greater insight over time.
On lessons from the second wave
First, it educates us about the past. It is now clear if we did not have the lockdown last year, the onset would have been far worse.
The second wave also shows that we must be continuously prepared. We need to seed deep expertise and infrastructure in research, in modelling and crisis response. These are long-term studies that require matching resources as well.
On immediate action points
We are working in repurposing of oxygen plants and we have identified several startups and industries for oxygen production. Some new designs have also come up which we are sharing. However, the real bottleneck just now is supply and logistics. That is being addressed by expert groups.
On imports vs preparation
We had no inkling the scale would be so huge. While we were totally prepared, the intensity is too high. This is not in contradiction with the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ idea. It is unprecedented scale and the need to supply at speed which is the determining factor here. We should do so (imports) in a crisis. All countries do it.
On second wave alerts
Our own modelling studies and various other studies, none of them predicted the scale, intensity and the ferocity that we see now. The country was prepared for a surge of less than a lakh per day as a lot of resources were built in the first wave for it.
The (Covid-19 supermodel) committee gave an informal alert in March and held its last meeting with (Niti Aayog member-health) Dr VK Paul on April 2 where the prediction was of India hitting the peak in the third-fourth week of April with an intensity of less than a lakh per day. Clearly what was predicted was far short of the reality, probably because inputs to the model changed — mutations in the virus which probably required less loading for the disease to take hold.
I say clearly that there was no other input, and not one of them, that was an alarming input, as far as science is concerned.
On the role of elections and Kumbh
Election rallies and others may have contributed a small fraction but please look at the totality and context of the overall behaviour seen in the country, even among enlightened sections of people. It had become pervasive.
On messaging on Covid safety
I don’t think one can fault the messaging. The messaging was always there. Mathematical models also clearly and emphatically said that the behaviour of the virus was linked to that of the people. It is a difficult situation, we cannot just be blaming each other. The important thing is to take charge of the situation and follow some simple things like masking as well as one can and ensuring adequate ventilation to check the spread of infection.
On the virus
While scientific studies are still on, the strains look more infective. It is argued that the transmission is happening through aerosol. It is still under study how much viral load is leading to the onset of disease.
Comparatively, a small fraction is showing severe symptoms but it is not clear how that selection happens. Comorbidity and obesity are indicators. So was age but now it is shifting to a younger population that was not infected before — like fire to fuel. Several ongoing global studies and at our labs will give greater insight over time.
On lessons from the second wave
First, it educates us about the past. It is now clear if we did not have the lockdown last year, the onset would have been far worse.
The second wave also shows that we must be continuously prepared. We need to seed deep expertise and infrastructure in research, in modelling and crisis response. These are long-term studies that require matching resources as well.
On immediate action points
We are working in repurposing of oxygen plants and we have identified several startups and industries for oxygen production. Some new designs have also come up which we are sharing. However, the real bottleneck just now is supply and logistics. That is being addressed by expert groups.
On imports vs preparation
We had no inkling the scale would be so huge. While we were totally prepared, the intensity is too high. This is not in contradiction with the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ idea. It is unprecedented scale and the need to supply at speed which is the determining factor here. We should do so (imports) in a crisis. All countries do it.
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5 Comments on this Story
 | Arun Karthick5 minutes ago He is a proof that a chemical engineers can model anything for sake of publications. Please resign from your post Dr. Sharma and go work on your publications and citations. Unfit to deal common people. Go back to IIT plz. |
 | Nithu Praveen1 hour ago what the heck is he talking about...even layman like me could predict this catastrophe...take for instance while a small state like Kerala alone was averaging 7-9k cases daily in feb / march the total count of india was as low as 9k....it was evident something was amiss...you guys manufacture stories and keep setting new narratives to duck responsibilities. |
| ALLA ABHISEK2 hours ago poor moron pappu doesn't understand that data that was fed into the models we're fake as lndia under reported first wave itslf self inflicted damage viswa record karna tha ?? |