Post-lockdown big spenders prepare to unleash their credit cards

A great deal of pent-up demand is about to burst forth in the coming 12 to 18 months

Donal O'Donovan Twitter Email

May 01 2021 02:30 AM

The number of Irish weddings halved last year, according to data from the Central Statistics Office. Assuming gross domestic romance (GDR) levels did not change, it means around half of what should have been the wedding class of 2020 postponed their big day.

It’s as good an illustration as any of the kind of pent-up demand we’re going to see unleashed in the coming 12 to 18 months.

Assuming they’re still on speaking terms after lockdown, couples who postponed a wedding last year are still going to get hitched.

So will the statistically consistent share of Irish people who’ll want our undying love and property rights notarised in 2021 and 2022.

The demand for wedding dresses, hair and make-up and vol-au-vents keeps building.

The ability to pay for all that has been building up too during the pandemic.

That’s a big change from the financial crisis a decade ago, which left most people poorer.

This time, a big part of the Irish economy kept motoring on, including the technology sector and drug exports.

And even where the Covid crisis has been desperately hard on a lot of people, households have been very effectively bailed out this time around; incomes were supported and savings surged – which takes us back to the weddings.

Of those who took the plunge in 2020, more opted for a civil than a Catholic ceremony and Fridays were more popular than Saturdays.

Lockdown restrictions meant the traditional big-day-out was off the agenda. Any couple who really wanted the works with hats, gúnas and a weekend surrounded by 200 to 400 of their nearest and dearest waited because in lockdown the big spenders were sidelined.

Post-lockdown big spenders are going to move centre pitch, and not just the ones booking weddings. Last summer’s brief but frenetic easing of restrictions proved people were ready and able to spend; on holidays, cars, clothes and socialising to the fullest extent allowed.

Not all of the billions squirrelled away by households over the past 15 months will be suddenly splurged, but people coming out of Covid with savings and a job will be a lot more flaithiúlach than after the last crash.

That’s a good thing. The more and faster they spend, the more and faster other people’s jobs recover, which in turn is the key to taking pressure off the public finances.

It won’t all be good news. Not every business that shut last year will reopen, in some cases because the pandemic sped up trends such as online shopping and home drinking.

There will be other long-term effects. Shutting building sites during a housing shortage will have consequences, driving up rents and house prices and worsening an already bad lack of supply. That’s good news for property investors and bad news for people – unless the Government finally bites the bullet and gets building.